Those with potentially competitive races: (The higher the rank the more competitive it will be)
Those almost certain to lose:
1)Nelson-Nebraska
2)McCaskill-Missouri
3)Brown-Ohio
4)Stabenow-Michigan
5)Tester-Montana
-Nelson and McCaskill have virtually no chance unless their GOP opponent implodes. Brown, Stabenow and Tester are in a bit better shape but all should have decent opponents (especially Stabenow) and Ohio and Montana should roll to the GOP in the Presidential election which will help down-ballot Republicans.
Those in great trouble:
6)Klobuchar-Minnesota
7)Webb-Virginia
8)Nelson-Florida
9)Casey-Pennsylvania
-Klobuchar will be helped by Minnesota's record of voting for Democrats in Presidential elections (they haven't voted Republican since 1972) and the GOP will have to come up with a good opponent. The Gopher State has elected two Republicans to the Senate since 1994 so it is quite possible they'll elect another one. Webb hasn't decided if he'll retire but even if he doesn't he'll be a long shot to win again. If he does retire that seat becomes a solid GOP pickup. Nelson is in great danger. It is not out of the realm of possiblity that Obama will lose the state by 15 points which would sink any down-ballot candidate. Nelson's a liberal who pretends he's a moderate and this will be fully exposed in the campaign. Bob Casey is a bit more moderate and the state is blue when it comes to Presidential elections. It hasn't voted for a GOP candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (although his son came close in 2004). This will be ground zero for the Presidential race. If Obama can't hold the Keystone State his chances of reelection are virtually zero so he'll pour money and volunteers into the area which should help Casey. If the economy continues to fizzle and the GOP can come up with a strong opponent it won't matter what the Administration does, Casey will lose.
Those who could be in trouble:
10)Conrad-North Dakota
11)Menendez-New Jersey
12)Cantwell-Washington
13)Cardin-Maryland
14)Manchin-West Virginia
15)Kohl-Wisconsin
16)Gillibrand-New York
-There's no reason to think Kent Conrad couldn't face a tough election. North Dakota will easily fall to the GOP candidate for President. And, like Nelson of Florida he's a liberal who pretends to be conservative. Byron Dorgan, his fellow Democrat from the state bowed out of the election last year when he faced an almost certain defeat. Menendez is in a stronger position because New Jersey is so blue. Moreover, the GOP has yet to find someone who will be willing to run such an expensive campaign. Maria Cantwell and Ben Cardin are in similar positions; they would only lose in their blue states if the GOP put up strong candidates. The GOP has a better chance in Washington; after all Cantwell barely won her first election in 2000, winning by a little over 2,000 votes. Moreover, Patty Murray won her last election by only 2% last November after winning handily in 2004. If Murray can be put on the ropes Cantwell is vulnerable too. Maryland is so deep blue it would be hard to beat Ben Cardin but Mike Steele gave him a tough run in 2006. However, the GOP bench is small. I don't know if Steele would be willing to run again. The only other alternative is the former governor, Bob Erlich. Joe Manchin faces an interesting dilemma: should he run as a Republican in 2012? West Virginia will give between 60-65% of its votes to whomever the GOP Presidential candidate is. Would any Democrat want to run down-ballot in that environment? We'll see. Herb Kohl hasn't had a tough race since he was first elected in 1988 but his negatives are high this year. I think he may retire. He hasn't done anything in the Senate of note and I don't know if he really cares to be there anymore. Gillibrand will benefit from being in New York but would have a serious challenge if George Pataki, Rudy Guiliani or Peter King ran against her. If any of these three men jumped in I would immediately make him the favorite to win the full six-year term.
Those who are safe:
17)Carper-Delaware
18)Whitehouse-Rhode Island
19)Akaka-Hawaii
20)Feinstein-California
21)Bingaman-New Mexico
22)Sanders-Vermont
-Tom Carper is in good shape in Delaware. There's no GOP candidate who can match him-he's just too tough. Sheldon Whitehouse will run for reelection in one of the bluest states in the Union. The same goes for Dan Akaka and Diane Feistein. The only way the GOP could compete in California (or New Mexico, Vermont and maybe Hawaii) would be if the Democratic incumbent decides to retire-which they may do.
Who knows?
23)Lieberman-Connecticut
-It is simply hard to say what he'll do. Certainly the Democrats want to elect someone else. Will he become a Republican? Will he run as an Independent? Will he retire? His negatives are much higher than they were in 2006 so he's in a tough spot. We'll just have to wait and see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Friday, December 24, 2010
House Democrats in trouble (part V)
Bill Owens has represented New York's 23rd District since he won a special election in 2009 to replace a Republican who went on to be Secretary of the Army. The 23rd, centered around Watertown, has been a GOP bastion since the Civil War and it was a bit of a quirk that Owens won in the first place. The local GOP warlords nominated a very liberal Republican for the 2009 special election who was simply too far left and ended up dropping out and endorsing Owens when she realized she would come in a distant third to the Democrat and the Conservative Party nominee. In 2010 there still wasn't a combined GOP/Conservative candidate and that split helped Owens get over the top again with a very weak 48% of the vote (the GOP and the Conservative candidates combined for about 51% of the vote). New York is losing a House seat so it will be interesting to see how the 23rd's lines move around. In any case, Owens will be in stiff fight if he wishes to defend his seat in the 2012 cycle.
Jim Matheson is a very lonely Democrat in Utah; there simply aren't that many left. He's a moderate member of the caucus who received a bit under 51% of the vote in this cycle-way under his average of about 55%. Utah will pick up a seat in redistricting and I'm sure they'll try to make Matheson's seat even redder than it is (it is dark red-like the rest of the state) and end up winning all four seats.
Gerry Connolly came within a few hundred votes of losing in his northern Virginia district in 2010. Easily elected to a first term in 2008, he had replaced the moderate Republican Tom Davis who had held the seat for years. CD 11 had been turning more and more purple over the years and Connolly was able to ride that wave in the 08 cycle. However, most of the state of Virginia has been in a general state of revolt against several Administration policies and has turned deep red in the last two years. CD 11 was ground zero in 2010 with Gerry Connolly basically comparing his opponent to the antiChrist and was able to control the narrative enough to survive by the skin of his teeth. The GOP will conttrol the redistricting process in the state and I'm sure they'll find a way to make Connolly's district a little less friendly to him.
Ron Kind has been the congressman for Wisconsin's 3rd District since 1996. A liberal who protrays himself as a moderate and generally stays way under the radar survived a strong challenge in the 2010 cycle but he received a very weak 50% of the vote in his western Wisconsin district. Slightly blue, the seats runs from Eau Claire in the north all the way to the Illiniois line, straddling the Mississippi River all the way down. If the GOP can find the right challenger I believe Ron Kind could find himself in very desperate straits-especially if the Badger State becomes one of the great battlegrounds of the 2012 cycle.
With Republicans controlling so many state legislatures I agree with the ultra-Yoda like Mike Barone and believe that the GOP will pick up between 10-15 more House seats in the next cycle. If they do end up with more than 250, if would be the first time since the 1920s that the Republicans will have that kind of advantage in the Lower Chamber.
Merry Christmas,
The Snitch
Jim Matheson is a very lonely Democrat in Utah; there simply aren't that many left. He's a moderate member of the caucus who received a bit under 51% of the vote in this cycle-way under his average of about 55%. Utah will pick up a seat in redistricting and I'm sure they'll try to make Matheson's seat even redder than it is (it is dark red-like the rest of the state) and end up winning all four seats.
Gerry Connolly came within a few hundred votes of losing in his northern Virginia district in 2010. Easily elected to a first term in 2008, he had replaced the moderate Republican Tom Davis who had held the seat for years. CD 11 had been turning more and more purple over the years and Connolly was able to ride that wave in the 08 cycle. However, most of the state of Virginia has been in a general state of revolt against several Administration policies and has turned deep red in the last two years. CD 11 was ground zero in 2010 with Gerry Connolly basically comparing his opponent to the antiChrist and was able to control the narrative enough to survive by the skin of his teeth. The GOP will conttrol the redistricting process in the state and I'm sure they'll find a way to make Connolly's district a little less friendly to him.
Ron Kind has been the congressman for Wisconsin's 3rd District since 1996. A liberal who protrays himself as a moderate and generally stays way under the radar survived a strong challenge in the 2010 cycle but he received a very weak 50% of the vote in his western Wisconsin district. Slightly blue, the seats runs from Eau Claire in the north all the way to the Illiniois line, straddling the Mississippi River all the way down. If the GOP can find the right challenger I believe Ron Kind could find himself in very desperate straits-especially if the Badger State becomes one of the great battlegrounds of the 2012 cycle.
With Republicans controlling so many state legislatures I agree with the ultra-Yoda like Mike Barone and believe that the GOP will pick up between 10-15 more House seats in the next cycle. If they do end up with more than 250, if would be the first time since the 1920s that the Republicans will have that kind of advantage in the Lower Chamber.
Merry Christmas,
The Snitch
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Jim Webb to retire?
Virginia Democrats are praying Jim Webb decides to run again as they know he's probably he only member of their party who has any shot at winning the seat. The GOP will be gunning to win no matter if Webb runs again or not and if I had to bet I'd say he'll pass on another campaign. Webb defeated Republican George Allen by a little more than 8,000 votes in the Democratic year of 2006 and the GOP feels strongly that they should be able to regain the seat as the state is turning red again. Webb hasn't really raised any money and he's not enamored with being in the Upper Chamber so I believe he'll pass on a hard, expensive fight in 2012.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Democrats in trouble in 2012 (Part IV)
Pennsylvania's Democrats took a beating in 2010, losing five House seats, an open Senate seat and the governorship. You might think that they couldn't lose any additional seats in 2012 but they'll be three lawmakers that will be in great danger in the next cycle. Jason Altmire (CD4), Mark Critz (CD 12) and Tim Holden (CD 17).
Altimre's district is just west of Pittsburgh and is a bit red, having voted for Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008. He won reelection with a weak 51% against an underfunded opponent and the GOP in the state legislature who control the redistricting process will ensure that more conservative neighborhoods are drawn into his district for the 2012 cycle.
Critz has one of the more gerrymandered districts in the country and its centered around Johnstown. This seat was drawn specifically to protect the late John Murtha but there won't be any reason to do it again now that Critz has taken over. Critz won by less than 2% of the vote and the district is surrounded by red areas that the stete legislature will be able to include for the next cycle.
Tim Holden won 56% of the vote in this rural east-central district. A true moderate, he's got a lot of support from all segments of the political spectrum which have kept him in power. There's no reason to believe that the GOP legislature won't drastically rewrite the districts lines and make his seat much redder for the 2012 cycle. Moreover, he'll have to introduce himself to a large part of this new district in a year that will probably be very tough for Pennsylvania Democrats.
The Keystone State will lose a seat in a congressional seat in the reapportionment and it will almost certainly be at the expense of one or more Democratic legislators. You'll see this scenario play out in quite a few states; Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia-just to name a few.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Altimre's district is just west of Pittsburgh and is a bit red, having voted for Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008. He won reelection with a weak 51% against an underfunded opponent and the GOP in the state legislature who control the redistricting process will ensure that more conservative neighborhoods are drawn into his district for the 2012 cycle.
Critz has one of the more gerrymandered districts in the country and its centered around Johnstown. This seat was drawn specifically to protect the late John Murtha but there won't be any reason to do it again now that Critz has taken over. Critz won by less than 2% of the vote and the district is surrounded by red areas that the stete legislature will be able to include for the next cycle.
Tim Holden won 56% of the vote in this rural east-central district. A true moderate, he's got a lot of support from all segments of the political spectrum which have kept him in power. There's no reason to believe that the GOP legislature won't drastically rewrite the districts lines and make his seat much redder for the 2012 cycle. Moreover, he'll have to introduce himself to a large part of this new district in a year that will probably be very tough for Pennsylvania Democrats.
The Keystone State will lose a seat in a congressional seat in the reapportionment and it will almost certainly be at the expense of one or more Democratic legislators. You'll see this scenario play out in quite a few states; Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia-just to name a few.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Democrats in trouble (Part III)
North Carolina was a bit of a disapointment for the GOP as they were only able to flip one of four vulnerable House seats. While they did well in contests for the state legislature they were unable to beat Mike McIntyre (CD 7) and Larry Kissell (CD 8). District 7 is in the southeastern part of the state and 8 is south-central. Both districts voted for Bush in 2004 but Obama was able to carry CD 8 in 2008 while McCain took CD 7. Kissell was thought to be especially vulnerable as he was a first-termer which had elected a Republican to the House for several cycles before 2008. In CD 7, McIntyre hadn't had a close election since 1996 but was targeted by the national GOP in the 2010 cycle. In the end, Kissell received 53% and McIntyre got 54%; respectable totals for a terrible cycle for the Democrats.
However, the GOP will control the entire redistricting process in the Tar Heel State for the 2012 election. While Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008 there is almost no chance he'll be able to repeat his victory in any state south of the Mason-Dixon line. I strongly suspect both Kissell and McIntyre will have much redder districts to defend in the cycle and it wouldn't be surprising to see them both go down two years from now.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
However, the GOP will control the entire redistricting process in the Tar Heel State for the 2012 election. While Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008 there is almost no chance he'll be able to repeat his victory in any state south of the Mason-Dixon line. I strongly suspect both Kissell and McIntyre will have much redder districts to defend in the cycle and it wouldn't be surprising to see them both go down two years from now.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Stabenow and McCaskill in deep trouble
Debbie Stabenow is in deep trouble in Michigan. An average legislator with good timing (elected in 2006 and reelected in the Democratic wave of 2006) she's in for the fight of her life in 2012. With plenty of Republicans who have good name recognition and such a high dissatisfaction with the President by the average Michigan voter she's highly vulnerable. Unless the Republicans nominate somebody totally unacceptable Stabenow should lose.
Claire McCaskill is in even greater danger. Scraping by in 2006 over Jim Talent she's rapidly becoming a conservative to make herself electable but this strategy is ultimately pointless. I'll say it right now-there is no way she's reelected. Missouri has turned brighly red and there's no reason to think it will be any different in 2012. Roy Blunt, an average GOP candidate, destroyed his Democratic opponent last month carrying every area of Missouri except for metro St. Louis and Kansas City. Like Michigan there are plenty of quality GOP opponents and they'll be rapidly announcing their candidacies in the next few months.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Claire McCaskill is in even greater danger. Scraping by in 2006 over Jim Talent she's rapidly becoming a conservative to make herself electable but this strategy is ultimately pointless. I'll say it right now-there is no way she's reelected. Missouri has turned brighly red and there's no reason to think it will be any different in 2012. Roy Blunt, an average GOP candidate, destroyed his Democratic opponent last month carrying every area of Missouri except for metro St. Louis and Kansas City. Like Michigan there are plenty of quality GOP opponents and they'll be rapidly announcing their candidacies in the next few months.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
15 House Democrats in trouble (cont.)
-MI 9 (Peters)
It was a minor miracle that Gary Peters survived in the sea of red that was Michigan on November 2. He faced a strong, well organized opponent in a district that routinely elected Republicans. Peters seemed like a sure loser but escaped and won by 3% over Rocky Raczkowski. The district takes up most of Oakland County, one of the classic swing areas not only of Michigan but of the entire country and is generally a good indicator of how a party will fare. For some reason, however, Peters was able to scrape by and received about 50% of the total vote. He wasn't particularly strong and Rocky was a solid opponent which should have been enough to knock him off. The GOP-controlled legislature will ensure that this district is more red for the 2012 cycle and I wouldn't rule out a rematch between these two foes.
-MN 1 (Walz)
Tim Walz was first elected in the Democratic wave of 2006 when he beat Gil Gutknecht (who won in the 1994 GOP wave) and should have been more vulnerable than he was in this district filled with political independents. However, his GOP opponent, Randy Demmer was weak and underfunded but he still held Walz to just 50% of the total vote. If the congressional lines don't change much and the Republicans can find a well-funded challenger early enough Walz will be in grave danger in 2012. Even though the GOP lost the governor's race this year they've got total control of the state legislature for the first time in a generation and will be gunning to win again in 2012. Minnesota will be ground zero for the presidential race, a contested Senate seat, and CD 1, which stretches all the way across southern Minnesota from the Wisconsin border all the way out to South Dakota.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
It was a minor miracle that Gary Peters survived in the sea of red that was Michigan on November 2. He faced a strong, well organized opponent in a district that routinely elected Republicans. Peters seemed like a sure loser but escaped and won by 3% over Rocky Raczkowski. The district takes up most of Oakland County, one of the classic swing areas not only of Michigan but of the entire country and is generally a good indicator of how a party will fare. For some reason, however, Peters was able to scrape by and received about 50% of the total vote. He wasn't particularly strong and Rocky was a solid opponent which should have been enough to knock him off. The GOP-controlled legislature will ensure that this district is more red for the 2012 cycle and I wouldn't rule out a rematch between these two foes.
-MN 1 (Walz)
Tim Walz was first elected in the Democratic wave of 2006 when he beat Gil Gutknecht (who won in the 1994 GOP wave) and should have been more vulnerable than he was in this district filled with political independents. However, his GOP opponent, Randy Demmer was weak and underfunded but he still held Walz to just 50% of the total vote. If the congressional lines don't change much and the Republicans can find a well-funded challenger early enough Walz will be in grave danger in 2012. Even though the GOP lost the governor's race this year they've got total control of the state legislature for the first time in a generation and will be gunning to win again in 2012. Minnesota will be ground zero for the presidential race, a contested Senate seat, and CD 1, which stretches all the way across southern Minnesota from the Wisconsin border all the way out to South Dakota.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
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