The Snitch is back!

Sorry for the long wait but, as Bill Murray said so eloquently in Caddyshack, "I was unavoidably detained." There's certainly a lot to talk about and I'll try to get an issue up every day.

A few quick Senate notes: Pete Hoekstra's entry into the Michigan Senate race makes it quite winnable for the GOP. Debbie Stabenow's positive/negative numbers are clearly underwater and she'll need help from Obama's GOTV efforts. A key for Hoekstra will be the Republican presidential nominee. If he's strong (a clear unknown at this point) it will help downballot candidates. It will take a lot of heavy lifting to get a GOP Senate winner in Michigan but I believe it will happen.

Pennsylvania doesn't look as good for the GOP. There's been no strong GOP challenger to Bob Casey who is clearly vulnerable. His numbers are much better than Stabenow's but the GOP is stronger in the Keystone State and just won the other Senate seat and the Governor's chair.

Sherrod Brown will lose in Ohio. Ben Nelson (NE), Claire McCaskill (MO) and Jon Tester (MT) all are gone. Along with open seats bound to fall in North Dakota and Virginia that gives the GOP 52. The Republicans have solid chances in the already mentioned Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. With some luck they can pick off a couple more in New Mexico, Minnesota, and West Virginia. New Jersey and New York are possiblities but they'd need just the right candidate. If they were to run the table right now they could get about 58 but I think a more reasonable number is about 55. They'll clearly have a majority, it will just be a question whether or not it will be a workable one to pass their legislative agenda (provided a Repubican is elected President).

Redistricting should give a marginal edge to the GOP. They'll pick up seats in Utah, Nevada, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and perhaps a couple other places but that will be offset by Democratic gains primarily in California and Illinois. Right now the GOP has 240 seats and I believe they'll gain about 5 in the next election. At any rate, the House GOP caucus will be able to pass any legislation they would like to in 2013. It will be the US Senate where the fight will really take place.

Tomorrow we'll talk about the President's lowsy approval numbers and how he could be the first person reelected with an approval rating of 45%.

Respectfully,

The Snitch

If the Presidential election were held today...

This is what it would probably look like in terms of Electoral Votes:
EV needed to win: 270

Pawlenty/Daniels (GOP) 312 EV
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 11
Arkansas 6
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Iowa 6
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Mississippi 6
Missouri 10
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
Ohio 18
Pennsylvania 20
South Carolina 9
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
Virginia 13
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

Obama/Clinton (Dem) 226 EV

California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 20
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachsetts 11
Michigan 16
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 14
New Mexico 5
New York 29
Oregon 7
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 12

In this scenario, the GOP wins. This assumes wins in Ohio (Likely), Pennsylvania (Somewhat Likely), Wisconsin (Somewhat Likely), Iowa (Likely), Nevada (Somewhat Likely), and New Hamshire (Likely). Of the states in play I rate them the most likely to fall to the GOP to the least likely:
-Ohio
-New Hampshire
-Nevada
-Colorado
-Iowa
-Wisconsin
-Pennsylvania
-New Mexico
-Minnesota
-Oregon
-Michigan
-Maine

Assuming all the GOP states are safe that would give the Republican candidate 248 Electoral Votes; just 22 short of victory. If he simply carries Ohio and New Hampshire that would give him the Presidency. As you can see I've put quite a few states up that have voted Democratic for years but I do believe they are all in play. The GOP won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. They won New Hampshire in 2000. They carried Nevada in 2000 and 2004. Colorado voted Republican in 2000 and 2004. Iowa went for the GOP in 2004. Wisconsin hasn't voted Republican since 1984 but in 2000 and 2004 George Bush basically tied his Democratic opponents but came up a bit short. Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988 but G.W. came within 2.5% of winning in 2004. New Mexico was basically a tie in 2000 and a GOP win in 2004. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972 but G.W. came within 2.4% of winning in 2000. Oregon was bascially a tie in 2000. Michigan has been a disaster for the GOP for several elections but the state's GOP governor won in 2010 with 59% of the vote in a deep blue state. You can bet the Republicans will put resources in the state. Maine splits its votes by congressional district so if you win one of the two districts you can collect at least one Electoral Vote. Right now I would say the President has a high hill to climb. He can still win but he needs a stronger economy, low gas prices and a weak GOP opponent. Otherwise he will probably be a one-term President.

Sincerely,

The Snitch

Open seats in the Senate point to large GOP gains in 2012

The Democratic exodus continues: Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico is retiring in 2012. He probably would have won reelection easily but his departure gives the GOP a real chance to win the seat. I wouldn't doubt if you see more Democratic defections from the Upper Chamber in the next couple of months. I have a sneaking suspicion that Herb Kohl will not run again and Diane Feinstein will also call it quits. Here's the list of vulnerable Democratic seats in 2012:
1)Missouri-McCaskill
2)Nebraska-Nelson
3)Virginia-Open
4)Montana-Tester
5)Brown-Ohio
6)North Dakota-Open
7)Florida-Nelson
8)Michigan-Stabenow
9)Pennsylvania-Casey
10)New Mexico-Open
11)Minnesota-Klobuchar
12)West Virginia-Manchin
13)Connecticut-Open
14)Wisconsin-Kohl

The GOP could pick up all 14 of these seats (unlikely yes but they did pick up 12 in 1946 and 1980 so it is possible in a wave election)-providing that the GOP is able to defend its seats (especially in Massachusetts) it could end up with around 60. At the very least they will pick up 7 and, with a GOP President, would roll back ObamaCare using the reconciliation process for most of its provisions. Time will tell.

Sincerely,

The Snitch

What is Joe Manchin's future in West Virginia?

Joe Manchin, the very popular former governor, now newly-elected Senator from West Virginia has turned his back on the main issue of his campaign. Finding himself behind his GOP challenger, he decided to put together a commercial literally shooting a rifle round through the new health care law and vowing to repeal it-making it the signature issue of the campaign. He immediately recovered in the polls and ended up with a nine point victory over his Republican opponent.

Last week the GOP minority in the Senate forced a vote on repeal and Manchin voted to sustain the health care legislation. There's simply no other way to spin it-he went back on his signature issue. ObamaCare is almost universally despised in the Mountaineer State and the GOP will probably carry the state in the 2012 Presidential election by twenty points or more. It should be a serious problem for Manchin who will have to run for the full term that fall. The trouncing the Democrats get at the top of the ticket should affect the down-ballot races (including Manchin's). The problem for the GOP is that there simply isn't a deep bench in the state. There aren't many Republicans who have name recognition and a positive approval rating to take on Manchin. In the age of New Media an unknown insurgent could win a campaign (like Ron Johnson in Wisconsin in 2010) but we'll have to simply wait and see.

Again here are the seats that will certainly or probably flip from the Dems to the GOP in 2012:
North Dakota
Missouri
Nebraska
Virginia
Florida
Michigan
Montana
Ohio

Right now the GOP should pick up at least 8 seats (with several more possible: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, New York and New Jersey) either very possible or at least somewhat possible). As I've mentioned before I suspect strongly that a lot of Democratic bulls will announce their retirement in the next few months.

Respectfully,

The Snitch

Nebraska and Montana both losses for Dems in 2012

Ben Nelson used to be the most popular Democrat in Nebraska. Considered a moderate until 2009, he's almost universally despised in the Cornhusker State after voting for the Administration's health care bill. He's already trailing prominent Republicans and his negative ratings are sky high. Quite simply, Nelson will end up like Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas-losing by 15 points or more. Nebraska will probably give a 60/40 advantage to the GOP Presidential candidate which will only help all the down-ballot Republicans. If I were Ben Nelson, I would retire and save myself the time and embarrasment of such a momumental defeat.

In Montana, the GOP's dream candidate, Dennis Rehberg, has decided to run against Jon Tester. Rehberg is the very popular at-large Congressman from the state and routinely wins elections by huge margins. Much like Nebraska, Montana will turn out liberal Democrats who pose as moderates in 2012. While the Rehberg/Tester race will be closer than the Nebraska contest, Rehberg will win by at least 10 percentage points.

Sincerely,

The Snitch

Will Webb and Bingaman follow Conrad into retirement?

2012 is shaping up to see major changes in the US Senate. Just as 2006, 2008 and 2010 brought a lot of new faces through retirements and defeats of incumbents, 2012 will probably be very similar. North Dakota's Kent Conrad is hanging it up after 24 years in the Senate and Texas' Kay Bay Hutchinson is also going to leave after 19 years in the Upper Chamber. Facing high negatives in Connecticut, Joe Lieberman is also hanging it up after 24 years in the Senate.

I suspect strongly that Jim Webb and Jeff Bingaman will also decide not to run again which will put both states in play for the GOP. The Republicans will be the odds-on favorite to win in Virginia whether Webb stays in or not; they'll be a lock to flip the seat if he does leave. If Bingaman does decide to retire the GOP will have a 50/50 chance to pick up another seat. If he stays in the Republicans will have almost no shot at winning.

Conrad's retirement puts the GOP in the driver's seat in North Dakota. The Republicans have plenty of politicians will statewide name recognition who will jump at the chance to win the seat. The Democrat's bench in the state is very slim and I suspect we'll see the GOP flip the seat.

Will Herb Kohl retire? After 24 years of doing very little in the Senate I suspect he'll hang up his cleats and head back to Milwaukee. Especially now that national health care has passed I don't think Kohl and several of the other liberal old timers will stay to go through yet another grueling reelection campaign. Right now I see the GOP picking up at least 7 Senate seats with a possiblity of matching their 1980 total of 12.

Sincerely,

The Snitch

Which Senators are in trouble in 2012

Those with potentially competitive races: (The higher the rank the more competitive it will be)

Those almost certain to lose:
1)Nelson-Nebraska
2)McCaskill-Missouri
3)Brown-Ohio
4)Stabenow-Michigan
5)Tester-Montana

-Nelson and McCaskill have virtually no chance unless their GOP opponent implodes. Brown, Stabenow and Tester are in a bit better shape but all should have decent opponents (especially Stabenow) and Ohio and Montana should roll to the GOP in the Presidential election which will help down-ballot Republicans.

Those in great trouble:
6)Klobuchar-Minnesota
7)Webb-Virginia
8)Nelson-Florida
9)Casey-Pennsylvania

-Klobuchar will be helped by Minnesota's record of voting for Democrats in Presidential elections (they haven't voted Republican since 1972) and the GOP will have to come up with a good opponent. The Gopher State has elected two Republicans to the Senate since 1994 so it is quite possible they'll elect another one. Webb hasn't decided if he'll retire but even if he doesn't he'll be a long shot to win again. If he does retire that seat becomes a solid GOP pickup. Nelson is in great danger. It is not out of the realm of possiblity that Obama will lose the state by 15 points which would sink any down-ballot candidate. Nelson's a liberal who pretends he's a moderate and this will be fully exposed in the campaign. Bob Casey is a bit more moderate and the state is blue when it comes to Presidential elections. It hasn't voted for a GOP candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (although his son came close in 2004). This will be ground zero for the Presidential race. If Obama can't hold the Keystone State his chances of reelection are virtually zero so he'll pour money and volunteers into the area which should help Casey. If the economy continues to fizzle and the GOP can come up with a strong opponent it won't matter what the Administration does, Casey will lose.

Those who could be in trouble:
10)Conrad-North Dakota
11)Menendez-New Jersey
12)Cantwell-Washington
13)Cardin-Maryland
14)Manchin-West Virginia
15)Kohl-Wisconsin
16)Gillibrand-New York

-There's no reason to think Kent Conrad couldn't face a tough election. North Dakota will easily fall to the GOP candidate for President. And, like Nelson of Florida he's a liberal who pretends to be conservative. Byron Dorgan, his fellow Democrat from the state bowed out of the election last year when he faced an almost certain defeat. Menendez is in a stronger position because New Jersey is so blue. Moreover, the GOP has yet to find someone who will be willing to run such an expensive campaign. Maria Cantwell and Ben Cardin are in similar positions; they would only lose in their blue states if the GOP put up strong candidates. The GOP has a better chance in Washington; after all Cantwell barely won her first election in 2000, winning by a little over 2,000 votes. Moreover, Patty Murray won her last election by only 2% last November after winning handily in 2004. If Murray can be put on the ropes Cantwell is vulnerable too. Maryland is so deep blue it would be hard to beat Ben Cardin but Mike Steele gave him a tough run in 2006. However, the GOP bench is small. I don't know if Steele would be willing to run again. The only other alternative is the former governor, Bob Erlich. Joe Manchin faces an interesting dilemma: should he run as a Republican in 2012? West Virginia will give between 60-65% of its votes to whomever the GOP Presidential candidate is. Would any Democrat want to run down-ballot in that environment? We'll see. Herb Kohl hasn't had a tough race since he was first elected in 1988 but his negatives are high this year. I think he may retire. He hasn't done anything in the Senate of note and I don't know if he really cares to be there anymore. Gillibrand will benefit from being in New York but would have a serious challenge if George Pataki, Rudy Guiliani or Peter King ran against her. If any of these three men jumped in I would immediately make him the favorite to win the full six-year term.

Those who are safe:
17)Carper-Delaware
18)Whitehouse-Rhode Island
19)Akaka-Hawaii
20)Feinstein-California
21)Bingaman-New Mexico
22)Sanders-Vermont

-Tom Carper is in good shape in Delaware. There's no GOP candidate who can match him-he's just too tough. Sheldon Whitehouse will run for reelection in one of the bluest states in the Union. The same goes for Dan Akaka and Diane Feistein. The only way the GOP could compete in California (or New Mexico, Vermont and maybe Hawaii) would be if the Democratic incumbent decides to retire-which they may do.

Who knows?
23)Lieberman-Connecticut

-It is simply hard to say what he'll do. Certainly the Democrats want to elect someone else. Will he become a Republican? Will he run as an Independent? Will he retire? His negatives are much higher than they were in 2006 so he's in a tough spot. We'll just have to wait and see.

Respectfully,

The Snitch