Now that Herman Cain seems to have survived the accusations of sexual harassment his polling numbers have leveled out to a basic tie with Mitt Romney. Cain didn't handle the scandal very well and, perhaps even worse, gave a terrible answer about China's nuclear arsenal that seemed to indicate he doesn't know anything about it. However, he seems to have weathered the worst of it and is starting to counterattack his political critics and go back on the offensive.
The primary (and the general election for that matter) is a state-by-state affair and in this scenario Romney prevails (see previous post). Newt Gingrich's rise has been remarkable and he's almost in striking range as the clear man in third place. It is possible if Cain does fade that Gingrich could end up being the conservative's choice against Romney. Like I've said before, Romney's numbers continue to stay about the same (somewhere in the mid-20s) while everyone else in the running continues to rise and fall.
To me it is clear that everyone else is out, including Texas governor Rick Perry. In the end, it will either be Romney or Cain. We're simply too far into the cycle for anyone who has already declared to rise and surpass the top two. Moreover, the filing deadline is passing for the early primary states so any other prospective candidate won't be able to get on the ballot. In the end, Cain or Romney will most likely be nominated unless there is a split convention (if nobody gets the requisite votes) and the delegates decide to go to someone else. We'll have to wait and see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Romney now positioned to win the GOP nomination
As strange as it may seem (for any number of reasons), Mitt Romney is on the cusp of winning the GOP Presidential nomination. Of the first five state contests, Romney is assured of winning one easily (New Hampshire) and will be competitive in Nevada and Florida. With conservative votes divided between Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann and Perry, Romney can move along steadily between 25-30% and pick up delegates along the way. As the primaries move to more moderate states (like California and Connecticut) he can take all the delegates in a "winner takes all" scenario in those states no matter what percentage he gets as long as he finishes first. In the end, he wins the nomination unless one solid conservative opponent emerges from the pack and can eclipse Romney. As of this writing that doesn't seem likely and Mitt Romney should be able to steer a straight path to the nomination.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Monday, October 10, 2011
Can Herman Cain win the Presidency?
The short answer is yes but I'm wondering if he's having what I call a "Howard Dean" moment. The former governor of Vermont came out of nowhere in late 2003 seizing on the anti-Iraq fervor in the Democratic party and found himself in first place just before the Iowa caucus. In fact, many felt he was a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination but at the last minute a letter was released (nobody knows who although it was probably Bill Clinton) showing Dean's support for Clinton's unilateral military strikes in Yugoslavia in 1998. This undercut Dean's claim as an antiwar liberal, and, after his disastrous speech the night he lost the Iowa caucus sunk him and allowed John Kerry to seize the nomination.
Right now it certainly seems that Cain is the "stop Romney" candidate. He's conservative fiscally and socially and seems very likeable to most that seem he him in stump speeches. He's gotten his biggest lift from the debates; he seems comfortable and plain spoken. He's got a great life story and he's unapologetic for his political positions. His "9-9-9" plan seems to resonate with a lot of voters but I think this will be his Achilles Heel. If he wins the nomination the Democrats will hit him over and over again with the idea of a 9% sales tax as a "regressive tax" on the poor. That's political dynamite and will be hard to handle.
Having said all that, two months is basically a geological ice age and so much can happen. A month ago the conventional wisdom on the GOP side was that Perry would be the "stop Romney" candidate. Perry has since faded into obscurity, chewed up by his own incomprehensible answers in the debates while Herman Cain shined. Conservative GOP voters will probably have to decide in the next two months whether or not they'll take the more moderate Romney or whether they'll gamble on a untested conservative like Herman Cain. Right now my money is on Cain. If anything, it would be very funny to watch the Left attack him, an African American who, unlike the current President, actually was the victim of racial discrimination who rose from obscurity to be a successful businessman.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Right now it certainly seems that Cain is the "stop Romney" candidate. He's conservative fiscally and socially and seems very likeable to most that seem he him in stump speeches. He's gotten his biggest lift from the debates; he seems comfortable and plain spoken. He's got a great life story and he's unapologetic for his political positions. His "9-9-9" plan seems to resonate with a lot of voters but I think this will be his Achilles Heel. If he wins the nomination the Democrats will hit him over and over again with the idea of a 9% sales tax as a "regressive tax" on the poor. That's political dynamite and will be hard to handle.
Having said all that, two months is basically a geological ice age and so much can happen. A month ago the conventional wisdom on the GOP side was that Perry would be the "stop Romney" candidate. Perry has since faded into obscurity, chewed up by his own incomprehensible answers in the debates while Herman Cain shined. Conservative GOP voters will probably have to decide in the next two months whether or not they'll take the more moderate Romney or whether they'll gamble on a untested conservative like Herman Cain. Right now my money is on Cain. If anything, it would be very funny to watch the Left attack him, an African American who, unlike the current President, actually was the victim of racial discrimination who rose from obscurity to be a successful businessman.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Monday, October 3, 2011
If Christie runs he could win the nomination and the Presidency
One thing is for sure: if Chris Christie runs it will be the end of Mitt Romney. Mitt has always been the moderate's choice in the race but the big man from Jersey would overtake him easily. Christie has some baggage (including a large waistline) but he'll be seen by a lot of moderates and some conservatives as a strong leader who can really challenge Obama in the general election.
I believe Christie would actually have an easier time winning the general election than the Republican nomination. If he wins the nomination he puts all the swing states in play (see previous posts) and even a few blue states. If he ran the table in the general election and won the swing states, Christie could end up with an Electoral College vote in the high 300s, easily capturing the Presidency.
This is all assuming he's running. I thought Mitch Daniels and Paul Ryan would run so I'm used to being wrong. Right now in Trenton Governor Christie and his team and considering how to put together a last minute strategy to get on the ballot in several states (like Florida) that have moved up their primaries. We should know by Friday if he's running. Many in the GOP are not at all satisfied with the current crop of candidates and a lot of pressure is being put on the Governor Christie to run. Simply put, the GOP doesn't want to lose an election to a President who is so obviously vulnerable and Chris Christie may be the answer they are looking for. While he may not be Ronald Reagan, he'll be able put together a coalition based on strong leadership that would be very hard to beat.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
I believe Christie would actually have an easier time winning the general election than the Republican nomination. If he wins the nomination he puts all the swing states in play (see previous posts) and even a few blue states. If he ran the table in the general election and won the swing states, Christie could end up with an Electoral College vote in the high 300s, easily capturing the Presidency.
This is all assuming he's running. I thought Mitch Daniels and Paul Ryan would run so I'm used to being wrong. Right now in Trenton Governor Christie and his team and considering how to put together a last minute strategy to get on the ballot in several states (like Florida) that have moved up their primaries. We should know by Friday if he's running. Many in the GOP are not at all satisfied with the current crop of candidates and a lot of pressure is being put on the Governor Christie to run. Simply put, the GOP doesn't want to lose an election to a President who is so obviously vulnerable and Chris Christie may be the answer they are looking for. While he may not be Ronald Reagan, he'll be able put together a coalition based on strong leadership that would be very hard to beat.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
A Republican will be elected tomorrow in West Virginia
Bill Maloney, the Republican candidate for governor of West Virginia, will defeat Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin in the state's special election tomorrow. I predict Maloney will win 51.5% to 48.5% after being down by as many as 30 points earlier this year. President Obama's approval rating is in the high 20s in the state and any Democrat will suffer because of that large albatross. Six weeks ago Tomblin was ahead by more than 15 points but has seen the race become a dead heat in the last 5 days. Most of late breaking voters are deciding to vote for Maloney, which only makes sense as political independents in the state simply can't stand the national Democratic party right now.
Having said that, Tomblin does have a solid chance of pulling out a win. The Democrats do have a substantial registration edge and control the State Assembly and Senate (and have controlled it since the 1930s). There have only been 2 Republicans elected to the governorship in the state since the Great Depression so it is only natural to think the Democrats have home field advantage. However, George Bush won the state twice and John McCain was victorious in 2008 so Republicans can win statewide and I believe they'll win tomorrow.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Having said that, Tomblin does have a solid chance of pulling out a win. The Democrats do have a substantial registration edge and control the State Assembly and Senate (and have controlled it since the 1930s). There have only been 2 Republicans elected to the governorship in the state since the Great Depression so it is only natural to think the Democrats have home field advantage. However, George Bush won the state twice and John McCain was victorious in 2008 so Republicans can win statewide and I believe they'll win tomorrow.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
A huge change in the Presidential race may be happening in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a GOP Presidential candidate since 1988. With the exception of only two states (Maine and Nebraska), all states have a "winner takes all" rule in giving its Presidential Electors to the person who gets the most votes in his state. For example, Al Gore won the state of Wisconsin by approximately 5,000 votes in 2000 but was granted all ten Electors from the state instead of five or six he may have gotten for splitting the vote.
Article II Section I of the Constitution gives each state broad latitude in how it chooses its Electors, so Pennsylvania's prospective change will almost certainly survive any court challenge (if it comes to that). Right now there are eighteen Electoral votes in Pennsylvania (2 Senate seats and 16 House seats) and what will probably happen under a new plan will be each candidate will be awarded all the congressional districts he carries, and, if he gets the most votes in the entire state, he'll get the two other Senate Electoral votes as well. This has huge implications: even if Obama were to carry the state in 2012 it is very likely he would lose at least ten of the congressional districts which would grant the GOP candidate ten Electoral Votes. Obama's will be overwhelmingly strong in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh but he'd lose in most of the rest of the state which would account for his actually winning less Electoral votes than his GOP opponent.
If you assume 206 Electoral votes are certain for the GOP and 60 more are leaning in the GOP's direction, they would only need four more to win the needed 270-they would come from Pennsylvania.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Article II Section I of the Constitution gives each state broad latitude in how it chooses its Electors, so Pennsylvania's prospective change will almost certainly survive any court challenge (if it comes to that). Right now there are eighteen Electoral votes in Pennsylvania (2 Senate seats and 16 House seats) and what will probably happen under a new plan will be each candidate will be awarded all the congressional districts he carries, and, if he gets the most votes in the entire state, he'll get the two other Senate Electoral votes as well. This has huge implications: even if Obama were to carry the state in 2012 it is very likely he would lose at least ten of the congressional districts which would grant the GOP candidate ten Electoral Votes. Obama's will be overwhelmingly strong in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh but he'd lose in most of the rest of the state which would account for his actually winning less Electoral votes than his GOP opponent.
If you assume 206 Electoral votes are certain for the GOP and 60 more are leaning in the GOP's direction, they would only need four more to win the needed 270-they would come from Pennsylvania.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Monday, September 12, 2011
Look for two big GOP wins tomorrow
Look for a big win by the GOP tomorrow in the special election in New York's Ninth Congressional District, vacated by Anthony Weiner who resigned in June after an exploding sex scandal doomed a once very powerful liberal Democrat. The district has not gone Republican since the 1920s but dissatisfaction with the President in domestic policy as well as his apparent anti-Israel positions in a district that has a high percentage of observant Jews has put the seat in play. Democratic politicians have crossed the aisle to support Bob Turner, a Catholic businessman who is the GOP's choice to run and is getting the overwhelming support of political independents in the district. Tomorrow in NY CD 9 you'll see the following result:
Bob Turner (R) 51%
David Weprin (D) 42%
Others 8%
In Nevada CD 2, Republican Mark Amodei will crush Democrat Kate Marshall in tomorrow's special election in this traditionally GOP district. The seat covers most of Nevada except the area around Las Vegas and is reliably conservative. Marshall looked to have a shot a few weeks ago (actually the Democrats tried to have the Secretary of State declare a "winner takes all election" without a primary to split the GOP vote among Republican rivals but was shot down by the courts which demanded a primary for both parties) but now looks like she'll get hammered tomorrow. Her attacks on Amodei, saying he'll "take away Medicare" don't seem to be resonating and he'll cruise to victory. I believe he'll win by 17 points tomorrow.
The New York election is particularly important as it shows the President's weakness with political independents. In 2008 he won 52% of the Independent vote but is not polling more than 38% of that block now. In some polling in NY CD9 he's getting less than 30% support within this all-important voting cohort. If Turner cruises to victory tomorrow in a district that hasn't voted for a Republican congressman in eighty years, alarm bells should go off all over Washington.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Bob Turner (R) 51%
David Weprin (D) 42%
Others 8%
In Nevada CD 2, Republican Mark Amodei will crush Democrat Kate Marshall in tomorrow's special election in this traditionally GOP district. The seat covers most of Nevada except the area around Las Vegas and is reliably conservative. Marshall looked to have a shot a few weeks ago (actually the Democrats tried to have the Secretary of State declare a "winner takes all election" without a primary to split the GOP vote among Republican rivals but was shot down by the courts which demanded a primary for both parties) but now looks like she'll get hammered tomorrow. Her attacks on Amodei, saying he'll "take away Medicare" don't seem to be resonating and he'll cruise to victory. I believe he'll win by 17 points tomorrow.
The New York election is particularly important as it shows the President's weakness with political independents. In 2008 he won 52% of the Independent vote but is not polling more than 38% of that block now. In some polling in NY CD9 he's getting less than 30% support within this all-important voting cohort. If Turner cruises to victory tomorrow in a district that hasn't voted for a Republican congressman in eighty years, alarm bells should go off all over Washington.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
