Once the most popular Democratic politician in Nebraska (he won reelection in 2006 by 26 points) Ben Nelson was probably headed for a huge loss next year no matter what GOP candidate would have emerged to face him. After being bribed to accept the President's health care plan in 2009, Nelson had a hard time even appearing in public in his home state to even eat dinner (he got booed out of at least one restaurant). It is a remarkable fall for someone once considered a "moderate" Democrat. The last three years have been hard on those Democrats who have tried to portray themselves as moderates or even conseratives. When George Bush was in office they could take positions that would shield them from too much controversy but once President Obama took office their true colors were exposed as Harry Reid in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House demanded, begged, bribed and pleaded for their support. In the end, it will cost the most of the moderate and conservative Democrats who are still in the two chambers their jobs. In the end, Ben Nelson's departure might help the Democrats nationally. While that may see contradictory, it is true. Had Nelson run, the DNC would have been forced to spend a lot of money defending his seat and still probably lose. Now they can simply write it off and spend their cash elsewhere.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Can Bobby Jindal be drafted?
If Rick Perry drops out (which I predict he will do immediately after Iowa) than Governor Jindal might consider it. He's a big Perry supporter so he's have to wait until Perry steps aside. Jindal would be a dream shot for most conservatives and they would flock to him. He would have to accept quickly to try to get on the ballot in several states to fight off Mitt Romney. Jindal has gotten some intense pressure lately to come in. A Jindal/Rubio ticket would be virtually unbeatable. We'll see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Can Santorum come in 2nd in Iowa?
The short answer is yes. This is the most fluid GOP primary in modern times. Two weeks ago Newt Gingrich was in command but has rapidly fallen out of the first tier of contenders as negative attacks have decimated his campaign. Conservative voters, looking for an alternative other than Mitt Romney, really have only one option left: Rick Santorum. Granted, Santorum has very little organization outside of Iowa and seems like an impossibly long shot but he's in a better position than most think. He's visited every corner of the state and has forged strong bonds that will pay off on the night of the caucus. I think it very possible that Santorum will finish at least 3rd, if not 2nd. Romney and Paul's supporters are pretty much locked in and those two candidates aren't going to move very much-in fact Paul's support will probably go down as his nutty positions become better known throughout the electorate.
If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Gingrich in Command?
With a little over three weeks to go until the Iowa caucus, the GOP race is still as fluid as ever. Even though Newt Gingrich seems to be ahead nationally he may have peaked a bit too early as the other Republican candidates continually attack him through the media, especially in Iowa. Either Gingrich or Romney will win in Iowa but Ron Paul may end up with a very surprising chunk of the vote (10-22%)and I do think Rick Santorum will end up with significantly more (5-12%) than our polling is showing. The other candidates will end up in single digits and will be totally knocked out after the New Hampshire primary.
It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.
I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.
I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Romney in Trouble
Mitt Romney is in deep trouble. He's been relying on a weak field of conservatives to divide the vote and leave him as the victor with about a quarter of the GOP primary vote. Moreover, he's always felt that no matter what would happen in Iowa (a probable Romney loss) he would roar to victory in New Hampshire. This weekend, however, the Manchester Union Leader, arguably the most influential conservative newspaper in New Hampshire, endorsed Newt Gingrich. This puts a significant dent in Romney's argument that he will be the inevitable nominee. He'll still probably win in New Hampshire but it is very possible that Gingrich will win in Iowa and come very close in the Granite State. If Gingrich does win one or both of the first two primary contests he'll probably win in South Carolina and Florida. By that time, the other conservatives in the race (Cain, Perry, etc.) will start to drop out and will have to decide whether or not to endorse Romney or Gingrich. I would bet that most or all will endorse Gingrich as he is much more conservative than Romney.
Gingrich certainly has a lot of baggage but he does have some great strengths. He is as articulate as Bill Clinton and will have the support of a united party who wants to defeat the President. If he does win the primary whom does he pick to be VP? For lots of reasons he should pick Marco Rubio. But we'll get to that later...
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Gingrich certainly has a lot of baggage but he does have some great strengths. He is as articulate as Bill Clinton and will have the support of a united party who wants to defeat the President. If he does win the primary whom does he pick to be VP? For lots of reasons he should pick Marco Rubio. But we'll get to that later...
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Saturday, November 12, 2011
The Senate Scorecard
Right now the Democrats control 53 seats and the GOP holds the other 47. 33 will be up in the next election. Here's how they look.
Solid GOP: (8)
-Texas
-Arizona
-Indiana
-Utah
-Mississippi
-Tennessee
-Wyoming
-Maine
GOP Pickups: (4)
-Wisconsin
-Montana
-Missouri
-Nebraska
Leaning GOP Pickups: (2)
-Virginia
-Florida
Toss ups: (3)
-Ohio-I know Sherrod Brown was polling well ahead of Josh Mandel but that will soon change. Brown is the most liberal member of the Upper House and Mandel will make that known in a state that's slightly red.
-North Dakota-I would have assumed the GOP would take this seat but the former Democratic Attorney General of the state has jumped in and she's formidable.
-Michigan
Lean Dem: (9)
-New Mexico
-Minnesota-If the Democratic incumbent doesn't get a strong challenger she'll run away with it.
-Connecticut
-Hawaii-This could prove a big surprise. The former GOP governor is mounting a tough challenge.
-California-Diane Feinstein is tough but she's out of campaign money and she hasn't yet announced.
-West Virginia
-Pennsylvania-The GOP has yet to put up a tough challenger against Bob Casey. He's beatable if a good Republican runs.
-New York-The GOP has put a solid Republican in the race against Kirsten Gillibrand but she'll be tough to unseat in this solidly blue state.
-Washington
Solid Dem: (5)
-Maryland
-New Jersey
-Vermont
-Rhode Island
-Delaware
Possible Dem Pickups: (2)
-Massachusetts
-Nevada
Right now the GOP is poised to pick up at least six seats. If they lose Massachusetts and Nevada they'll still have a majority (51) but it will be slim. At the same time, if they did get several breaks, they could gain as many as sixteen (certainly unlikely) but if they got thirteen they would have a filibuster-proof majority. In 1980 the GOP picked up twelve Senate seats, including several thought to be out of reach. It is reasonable to assume that the Democrats will take significant losses in the Senate (and the GOP should easily keep the House) even if the President wins reelection. This could very well prove to be the fourth "wave" election in a row. Most of the faces in the House and Senate in the last ten years are new. If the President does win reelection, the Senate class of 2014 will be particularly vulnerable and the GOP will probably end up with more than sixty seats after that cycle.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Solid GOP: (8)
-Texas
-Arizona
-Indiana
-Utah
-Mississippi
-Tennessee
-Wyoming
-Maine
GOP Pickups: (4)
-Wisconsin
-Montana
-Missouri
-Nebraska
Leaning GOP Pickups: (2)
-Virginia
-Florida
Toss ups: (3)
-Ohio-I know Sherrod Brown was polling well ahead of Josh Mandel but that will soon change. Brown is the most liberal member of the Upper House and Mandel will make that known in a state that's slightly red.
-North Dakota-I would have assumed the GOP would take this seat but the former Democratic Attorney General of the state has jumped in and she's formidable.
-Michigan
Lean Dem: (9)
-New Mexico
-Minnesota-If the Democratic incumbent doesn't get a strong challenger she'll run away with it.
-Connecticut
-Hawaii-This could prove a big surprise. The former GOP governor is mounting a tough challenge.
-California-Diane Feinstein is tough but she's out of campaign money and she hasn't yet announced.
-West Virginia
-Pennsylvania-The GOP has yet to put up a tough challenger against Bob Casey. He's beatable if a good Republican runs.
-New York-The GOP has put a solid Republican in the race against Kirsten Gillibrand but she'll be tough to unseat in this solidly blue state.
-Washington
Solid Dem: (5)
-Maryland
-New Jersey
-Vermont
-Rhode Island
-Delaware
Possible Dem Pickups: (2)
-Massachusetts
-Nevada
Right now the GOP is poised to pick up at least six seats. If they lose Massachusetts and Nevada they'll still have a majority (51) but it will be slim. At the same time, if they did get several breaks, they could gain as many as sixteen (certainly unlikely) but if they got thirteen they would have a filibuster-proof majority. In 1980 the GOP picked up twelve Senate seats, including several thought to be out of reach. It is reasonable to assume that the Democrats will take significant losses in the Senate (and the GOP should easily keep the House) even if the President wins reelection. This could very well prove to be the fourth "wave" election in a row. Most of the faces in the House and Senate in the last ten years are new. If the President does win reelection, the Senate class of 2014 will be particularly vulnerable and the GOP will probably end up with more than sixty seats after that cycle.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Romney vs. Cain for the nomination
Now that Herman Cain seems to have survived the accusations of sexual harassment his polling numbers have leveled out to a basic tie with Mitt Romney. Cain didn't handle the scandal very well and, perhaps even worse, gave a terrible answer about China's nuclear arsenal that seemed to indicate he doesn't know anything about it. However, he seems to have weathered the worst of it and is starting to counterattack his political critics and go back on the offensive.
The primary (and the general election for that matter) is a state-by-state affair and in this scenario Romney prevails (see previous post). Newt Gingrich's rise has been remarkable and he's almost in striking range as the clear man in third place. It is possible if Cain does fade that Gingrich could end up being the conservative's choice against Romney. Like I've said before, Romney's numbers continue to stay about the same (somewhere in the mid-20s) while everyone else in the running continues to rise and fall.
To me it is clear that everyone else is out, including Texas governor Rick Perry. In the end, it will either be Romney or Cain. We're simply too far into the cycle for anyone who has already declared to rise and surpass the top two. Moreover, the filing deadline is passing for the early primary states so any other prospective candidate won't be able to get on the ballot. In the end, Cain or Romney will most likely be nominated unless there is a split convention (if nobody gets the requisite votes) and the delegates decide to go to someone else. We'll have to wait and see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
The primary (and the general election for that matter) is a state-by-state affair and in this scenario Romney prevails (see previous post). Newt Gingrich's rise has been remarkable and he's almost in striking range as the clear man in third place. It is possible if Cain does fade that Gingrich could end up being the conservative's choice against Romney. Like I've said before, Romney's numbers continue to stay about the same (somewhere in the mid-20s) while everyone else in the running continues to rise and fall.
To me it is clear that everyone else is out, including Texas governor Rick Perry. In the end, it will either be Romney or Cain. We're simply too far into the cycle for anyone who has already declared to rise and surpass the top two. Moreover, the filing deadline is passing for the early primary states so any other prospective candidate won't be able to get on the ballot. In the end, Cain or Romney will most likely be nominated unless there is a split convention (if nobody gets the requisite votes) and the delegates decide to go to someone else. We'll have to wait and see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
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