Sorry I couldn't get this on the board until now. Can't blog at work.
Here's what I think:
Romney 295 EVs
Obama 243 EVs
Romney wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida and Virginia.
Obama wins Pennsylvania and Nevada.
GOP +3 in the Senate (The GOP candidate for the Senate will win in PA)
GOP +3 in the House
Romney 50.4
Obama 48.5
Other 1.1
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Fundamentals still favor Romney
What a crazy season! Nobody really knows where we are with early voting, partisan polling, etc. But I'd like to post what I think might be one of the most accurate summaries of what should happen courtesy of the website Baseball Crank:
Respectfully,
The Snitch
We can't know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republicanturnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney's advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.
Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Thursday, November 1, 2012
View on the races for the US Senate
What should have been an easy GOP win a few months ago is turning out to be much closer than anticipated. Two seats in Missouri and Indiana should have been easy GOP pickups but both candidates have stepped on their tongues and (at least in Missouri) will probably cost the Republicans a seat. As in 2010 when the GOP should have picked up seats in Delaware and Nevada, they insisted on nominating candidates that were unacceptable to the general public. Here's how I see it working out today:
Seats the Dems will most likely pick up:
Maine: Almost certainly won by the Independent candidate in the race who will caucus with the Democrats
Massachusetts: Scott Brown has to pick up so many independents and a few Democrats in the state that it is almost impossible to win; even against an absolutely terrible candidate like Elizabeth Warren.
Indiana: Had the GOP decided to renominate Richard Lugar this wouldn't even be a discussion but since Richard Mourdock made his unfortunate comments about rape he may end up losing a seat he should have won. He did win easily statewide in 2010 as the Treasurer of Indiana so he is a proven vote getter but it remains to be seen if he can ride the Republican wave that is powered by Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket.
Arizona: Jeff Flake could lose this seat but I give him about an 80% chance of beating his Democratic challenger.
Nevada: It looks like Dean Heller will retain his seat. This election looks to be over.
Seats the GOP should pick up:
Nebraska: This is much closer now than two months ago. Deb Fischer is only a few points ahead of Bob Kerrey, the former governor and senator. Mitt Romney should carry the state by more than 30 points and that should put Fisher over the top.
North Dakota: Rick Berg should beat the Democratic Attorney General in the battle for the open seat.
Wisconsin: I know this seat is close but Tommy Thompson should prevail over the ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin.
Montana: Jon Tester should lose to Republican challenger Denny Rehberg. It is close but in the end Rehberg wins.
Toss Ups:
Ohio: A race going right down to the wire. Josh Mandel has been trailing the incumbent Democrat but with the Republican GOTV effort he'll prevail if Mitt Romney wins the state. If Romney wins Mandel probably does to, and vice versa.
Virginia: George Allen should be helped by a massive Mitt Romney GOTV effort. I suspect Romney will win the state by 4-5 points and that might be enough to pull Allen over the finish line to replace Jim Webb.
Pennsylvania: Republican Tom Smith is tied with incumbent Bob Casey. I think this may be the biggest surprise on election night. My gut tells me Smith will win this race.
Leaning Democrat:
Connecticut: Chris Murphy should beat Linda McMahon in this heavily Democratic state.
Florida: Bill Nelson should be able to prevail against a terrible GOP candidate in what should be a Republican win against a very liberal Democrat.
Missouri: See the first paragraph.
Surprises?
Hawaii: If Mitt Romney sweeps Florida, Ohio and Virginia early enough in the evening enough dejected Democrats may stay home. That's her only chance of winning.
Probably not a contest:
Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota. The Democrats should retain these three seats.
Simply put, there's simply too many variables so we won't know until probably Wednesday how the Senate will look. If the GOP runs the table they max out at 55 seats but if they don't do well on Tuesday they'll be somewhere (probably in the high 40s). It is simply too hard to tell.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Seats the Dems will most likely pick up:
Maine: Almost certainly won by the Independent candidate in the race who will caucus with the Democrats
Massachusetts: Scott Brown has to pick up so many independents and a few Democrats in the state that it is almost impossible to win; even against an absolutely terrible candidate like Elizabeth Warren.
Indiana: Had the GOP decided to renominate Richard Lugar this wouldn't even be a discussion but since Richard Mourdock made his unfortunate comments about rape he may end up losing a seat he should have won. He did win easily statewide in 2010 as the Treasurer of Indiana so he is a proven vote getter but it remains to be seen if he can ride the Republican wave that is powered by Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket.
Arizona: Jeff Flake could lose this seat but I give him about an 80% chance of beating his Democratic challenger.
Nevada: It looks like Dean Heller will retain his seat. This election looks to be over.
Seats the GOP should pick up:
Nebraska: This is much closer now than two months ago. Deb Fischer is only a few points ahead of Bob Kerrey, the former governor and senator. Mitt Romney should carry the state by more than 30 points and that should put Fisher over the top.
North Dakota: Rick Berg should beat the Democratic Attorney General in the battle for the open seat.
Wisconsin: I know this seat is close but Tommy Thompson should prevail over the ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin.
Montana: Jon Tester should lose to Republican challenger Denny Rehberg. It is close but in the end Rehberg wins.
Toss Ups:
Ohio: A race going right down to the wire. Josh Mandel has been trailing the incumbent Democrat but with the Republican GOTV effort he'll prevail if Mitt Romney wins the state. If Romney wins Mandel probably does to, and vice versa.
Virginia: George Allen should be helped by a massive Mitt Romney GOTV effort. I suspect Romney will win the state by 4-5 points and that might be enough to pull Allen over the finish line to replace Jim Webb.
Pennsylvania: Republican Tom Smith is tied with incumbent Bob Casey. I think this may be the biggest surprise on election night. My gut tells me Smith will win this race.
Leaning Democrat:
Connecticut: Chris Murphy should beat Linda McMahon in this heavily Democratic state.
Florida: Bill Nelson should be able to prevail against a terrible GOP candidate in what should be a Republican win against a very liberal Democrat.
Missouri: See the first paragraph.
Surprises?
Hawaii: If Mitt Romney sweeps Florida, Ohio and Virginia early enough in the evening enough dejected Democrats may stay home. That's her only chance of winning.
Probably not a contest:
Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota. The Democrats should retain these three seats.
Simply put, there's simply too many variables so we won't know until probably Wednesday how the Senate will look. If the GOP runs the table they max out at 55 seats but if they don't do well on Tuesday they'll be somewhere (probably in the high 40s). It is simply too hard to tell.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, October 28, 2012
It is all about Independents now
Mitt Romney will win political independents by at least eight points (and probably a lot more) nationally but we simply don't know how much he'll capture that all important group. It is clear that the late breaking undecided voters are clearly disillusioned with the President and are drifting slowly toward the GOP in the late stages. This explains Democratic numbers collapsing in safe states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota and the GOP drawing even in Ohio and Wisconsin. If Romney ends up winning indies by more than ten points he's going to end up winning nationally by five points so you'll see an Electoral College victory for the Republican of somewhere above 300 Electoral Votes. If he does end up taking Pennsylvania he could max out at 321. If somehow he takes Maine's 2nd Congressional District (that state parcels out its electors by district) and Minnesota that would bring it up to 332-something not seen for the GOP since 1988 when G.H.W. Bush got over 400 Electoral Votes in an eight point win over Michael Dukakis.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Look for a wipeout in Florida
In the latest tracks in Florida the President can't seem to crack 47%. With latebreakers almost always voting in large numbers for the challenger I believe Mitt Romney will win the Sunshine State by at least five and as many as eight points. In 2004 George Bush won by 5% and I believe Romney will win by a bigger margin. It remains to be seen if Connie Mack, the Republican Senate candidate, can use that kind of momentum to beat the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson.
Looking at the early returns in places like Hillsborough County (near Tampa) will give us a great idea of what will happen on election night. Bush won it in 2004 and Obama flipped it in 2008. If Romney gets a big win there early we can expect a good night for the former Massachusetts governor.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Looking at the early returns in places like Hillsborough County (near Tampa) will give us a great idea of what will happen on election night. Bush won it in 2004 and Obama flipped it in 2008. If Romney gets a big win there early we can expect a good night for the former Massachusetts governor.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
A Couple of Final Thoughts
If I noticed anything from last night's debate it is that it seems to be that Obama almost seemed like the challenger. It could be that he might have felt that a more aggressive performance was what he needed to best Romney in the debate. However, I think there is a simpler reason: a tough Obama livens up his base. He's busy fundraising with rappers and he's hanging out at a ton of college campuses in the last two weeks of the election which begs the question; why isn't he making speeches to independents? Simply put, he must feel from his internals that his base isn't yet where he wants them to be to win the election and knows that without maximum support from these core constituencies he'll come up short.
It seems, for the most part, that Obama has given up on whole segments of political independents, especially white indpendents (right now he's getting less than 40% of the white vote, which is very dangerous for a Democrat in a national election), so he's going to spend most of the rest of his time trying to squeeze out every last vote from his base. It is hard to imagine him getting the support from African Americans and college-age voters that he did in 2008 but he'll need them all to win. If he doesn't get that massive turnout from these groups he'll probably lose the election. That explains his aggressiveness and the last two weeks of his campaign schedule.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
It seems, for the most part, that Obama has given up on whole segments of political independents, especially white indpendents (right now he's getting less than 40% of the white vote, which is very dangerous for a Democrat in a national election), so he's going to spend most of the rest of his time trying to squeeze out every last vote from his base. It is hard to imagine him getting the support from African Americans and college-age voters that he did in 2008 but he'll need them all to win. If he doesn't get that massive turnout from these groups he'll probably lose the election. That explains his aggressiveness and the last two weeks of his campaign schedule.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Down to Six States Now
It looks as if Romney is fairly secure in Florida and Virginia. Certainly Obama could sneak a win in one or both of those states, and, if he did, he'd probably win. Unless something drastic changes, however, I believe they are probably out of reach for the President.
On the other side, Michigan almost certainly seems out for Romney and probably Pennsylvania as well although if he could sneak a win in the Keystone State he'd cinch the election. They don't have much early voting like many other states so a late push by Romney would make sense if he felt the numbers were right. Paul Ryan visited Pittsburgh last weekend to a raucus reception. We'll have to wait and see for about another four days if Romney's team will spend the time and resources there.
The current Electoral College Count is Romney 248, Obama 237 with Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Iowa
(6), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) left to be decided. Of all these states, Colorado will almost certainly fall into Romney's lap but I'm not ready to give it to him. If Ohio falls with Colorado he'll win the election. If the contest ended today I would say that Romney would win Ohio, Colorado and Iowa for a total of 285 EVs, 15 more than he'd need. If he runs the table and sneaks Pennsylvania he'll get 321 but that's about his maximum ceiling right now.
Romney is certainly is good shape but two weeks is a very long time in politics. We'll see if his surge, especially with political independents, will be enough to stop Obama's ground game, especially in Ohio.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
On the other side, Michigan almost certainly seems out for Romney and probably Pennsylvania as well although if he could sneak a win in the Keystone State he'd cinch the election. They don't have much early voting like many other states so a late push by Romney would make sense if he felt the numbers were right. Paul Ryan visited Pittsburgh last weekend to a raucus reception. We'll have to wait and see for about another four days if Romney's team will spend the time and resources there.
The current Electoral College Count is Romney 248, Obama 237 with Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Iowa
(6), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) left to be decided. Of all these states, Colorado will almost certainly fall into Romney's lap but I'm not ready to give it to him. If Ohio falls with Colorado he'll win the election. If the contest ended today I would say that Romney would win Ohio, Colorado and Iowa for a total of 285 EVs, 15 more than he'd need. If he runs the table and sneaks Pennsylvania he'll get 321 but that's about his maximum ceiling right now.
Romney is certainly is good shape but two weeks is a very long time in politics. We'll see if his surge, especially with political independents, will be enough to stop Obama's ground game, especially in Ohio.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
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