By my count there are nine seats in the Midwest that will certainly flip to the GOP this fall: Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus), Ohio CD 16 (Boccieri), Indiana CD 8 (Open), Indiana CD 9 (Hill), Wisconsin CD 8 (Kagan), Illinois CD 14 (Foster), Michigan CD 1 (Open), Michigan CD 7 (Schauer), and Michigan CD 9 (Peters). The question is how many of the other competitive seats will turn over this year? Right now I would say there are twelve seats that have at least a 50% chance of turning: Ohio CD 6, 13, 15, and 18, Indiana CD 2, Iowa CD 3, Wisconsin CD 3 and 7, and, the mother load in Illinois, CD 8, 11, 12, and 17. If the GOP were lucky enough to pick them all off, they would be halfway to control of the House of Representatives. I would bet that of these twenty they will nab sixteen.
When the GOP does retake control in January the Speaker (presumably) will be John Boehner (Ohio) and the Majority Leader will be Mike Pence (Indiana). Arguably the most powerful committee in the House (Ways and Means) will be run by little-known Dave Camp of Midland Michigan and the young firebrand from Janesville Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, will run the Budget Committee. It will be very interesting to see how the change in party will not only alter the political dialogue but the locus of power from the coasts (Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, etc) to the Midwest (Boehner, Pence, Camp). We'll just have to wait and see.
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