Thursday, March 10, 2011

If the Presidential election were held today...

This is what it would probably look like in terms of Electoral Votes:
EV needed to win: 270

Pawlenty/Daniels (GOP) 312 EV
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 11
Arkansas 6
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Iowa 6
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Mississippi 6
Missouri 10
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
Ohio 18
Pennsylvania 20
South Carolina 9
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
Virginia 13
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

Obama/Clinton (Dem) 226 EV

California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
DC 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 20
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachsetts 11
Michigan 16
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 14
New Mexico 5
New York 29
Oregon 7
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 12

In this scenario, the GOP wins. This assumes wins in Ohio (Likely), Pennsylvania (Somewhat Likely), Wisconsin (Somewhat Likely), Iowa (Likely), Nevada (Somewhat Likely), and New Hamshire (Likely). Of the states in play I rate them the most likely to fall to the GOP to the least likely:
-New Hampshire
-New Mexico

Assuming all the GOP states are safe that would give the Republican candidate 248 Electoral Votes; just 22 short of victory. If he simply carries Ohio and New Hampshire that would give him the Presidency. As you can see I've put quite a few states up that have voted Democratic for years but I do believe they are all in play. The GOP won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. They won New Hampshire in 2000. They carried Nevada in 2000 and 2004. Colorado voted Republican in 2000 and 2004. Iowa went for the GOP in 2004. Wisconsin hasn't voted Republican since 1984 but in 2000 and 2004 George Bush basically tied his Democratic opponents but came up a bit short. Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988 but G.W. came within 2.5% of winning in 2004. New Mexico was basically a tie in 2000 and a GOP win in 2004. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972 but G.W. came within 2.4% of winning in 2000. Oregon was bascially a tie in 2000. Michigan has been a disaster for the GOP for several elections but the state's GOP governor won in 2010 with 59% of the vote in a deep blue state. You can bet the Republicans will put resources in the state. Maine splits its votes by congressional district so if you win one of the two districts you can collect at least one Electoral Vote. Right now I would say the President has a high hill to climb. He can still win but he needs a stronger economy, low gas prices and a weak GOP opponent. Otherwise he will probably be a one-term President.


The Snitch