In Oregon's 1st Congressional District, a special election will take place next Tuesday to replace the crazy and corrupt David Wu who resigned last summer. The 1st District is strongly Democratic but the GOP candidate, Rob Cornilles, has been surging of late and may pull off a mild upset on Tuesday. All ballot are mailed in so it shouldn't take the clerk of courts too long on Tuesday to announce the winner.
In Arizona, Gabby Giffords resigned this week which sets up a special election in June to fill a seat that slightly favors Republicans. Giffords won the seat in the Democratic wave of 2006 and barely held on in 2010 after a nasty campaign. I predict a GOP win in the Arizona's 8th Congressional District.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Saturday, January 28, 2012
The GOP nomination for President is over
Mitt Romney will crush Newt Gingrich in Florida next Tuesday. I predict he'll win by at least ten points in a winner-take-all primary in the Sunshine State. Gingrich needed to do well in the more conservative states (especially in the south) to compete with Romney nationally. Romney will do very well in more moderate states (like California and Connecticut) so it was imperative for Gingrich to repeat his South Carolina success in Florida. Unable to do it, he'll flutter for a few more weeks and then disappear. Unlike the Democratic primary, most Republican primaries reward the winner with all the delegates which always favors a candidate like Romney who can count on 25-30% of any states GOP voters. As long as Gingrich, Santorum and Paul split up the rest of the votes Romney will be sitting in the catbird seat.
Unless something really strange happens Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee. Within the next two weeks that will become very clear as he competes next in Nevada and Maine and should have it wrapped up by Super Tuesday on March 6.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Unless something really strange happens Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee. Within the next two weeks that will become very clear as he competes next in Nevada and Maine and should have it wrapped up by Super Tuesday on March 6.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Gingrich win threatens GOP in November
While Newt Gingrich's win in SC was impressive (he won by even more than I thought-see last post) he's absolutely toxic in a general election. While Barack Obama's approval rating is too low historically for reelection he's in good shape if a Republican like Gingrich (approval rating 27%) gets the nomination. Moreover, he'll hurt GOP candidates nationwide in an environment in which Republicans should do remarkably well.
Romney, Gingrich and Santorum all have big weaknesses but Romney remains the most electable. In reality, the GOP really needs a better candidate so perhaps a Gingrich win is good in a way if the convention ends up split and can settle on someone else.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Romney, Gingrich and Santorum all have big weaknesses but Romney remains the most electable. In reality, the GOP really needs a better candidate so perhaps a Gingrich win is good in a way if the convention ends up split and can settle on someone else.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Friday, January 20, 2012
Gingrich blowout brewing in South Carolina
The GOP race gets crazier and crazier with each passing day. The conventional wisdom is that there is no conventional wisdom. Just a few days ago we were all talking about the inevitability of a Mitt Romney victory in South Carolina and Florida. Today, after an outstanding debate performance by Newt Gingrich and continual miscues by Romney about his taxes have sent shock waves through the race.
Voters are obviously uncomfortable with Romney's evasive answers about how much he pays in taxes and where his money is. Even if he does have answers that are truthful they still sound like the fishy nuances we are used to from people like John Kerry. Moreover, Gingrich's home run on the very first question last night about how his second marriage ended drew rave reviews from the GOP rank and file in the Palmetto State and will translate into votes tomorrow.
Now that there are four candidates left many conservative voters will have to decide between Rick Santorum and Gingrich. If they begin to feel a Gingrich surge they'll vote for him (as everyone wants a winner). I think Newt will probably beat Mitt by 8 points or more with Paul and Santorum coming in 3rd and 4th respectively. If Santorum has a bad showing and drops out he'll probably endorse Newt. If that happens this primary season could go on for several weeks and may not get resolved until the convention. If Romney can still do well in South Carolina and win Florida he'll still have the inside track. But if he does not do as well as he should have in South Carolina and Florida is a close race (just a week ago it was a Romney blowout) he'll have a much harder time closing the deal.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Voters are obviously uncomfortable with Romney's evasive answers about how much he pays in taxes and where his money is. Even if he does have answers that are truthful they still sound like the fishy nuances we are used to from people like John Kerry. Moreover, Gingrich's home run on the very first question last night about how his second marriage ended drew rave reviews from the GOP rank and file in the Palmetto State and will translate into votes tomorrow.
Now that there are four candidates left many conservative voters will have to decide between Rick Santorum and Gingrich. If they begin to feel a Gingrich surge they'll vote for him (as everyone wants a winner). I think Newt will probably beat Mitt by 8 points or more with Paul and Santorum coming in 3rd and 4th respectively. If Santorum has a bad showing and drops out he'll probably endorse Newt. If that happens this primary season could go on for several weeks and may not get resolved until the convention. If Romney can still do well in South Carolina and win Florida he'll still have the inside track. But if he does not do as well as he should have in South Carolina and Florida is a close race (just a week ago it was a Romney blowout) he'll have a much harder time closing the deal.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Santorum the anti-Romney candidate?
Can Rick Santorum win the nomination? Yes, but he'll need help-specifically from Newt Gingrich. Mitt Romney needs as many conservatives to stay in the race through the Florida primary to split enough votes so he can win in the Sunshine State. Certainly Romney did well in Iowa and will win New Hampshire but it is very possible that he will lose in South Carolina and Florida to Rick Santorum.
Gingrich has already said he'll do whatever it takes to take Mitt Romney down. He sees Romney as a closet liberal and can't stand the idea that a conservative wouldn't be nominated by the GOP in a year in which the incumbent Democrat is so vulnerable. If Santorum can demonstrate some strength in New Hampshire I believe it is likely that most conservative GOP voters will turn to him as a reliable second choice instead of others they may favor.
Santorum's 99 county Iowa strategy really paid off. He camped out in the state for months forming strong relationships with the community and rose to the top when other conservatives fell by the wayside. And now, with so many GOP activists paying close attention (especially through the internet) they can quickly make a decision to vote for the former senator from Pennsylvania. Not only that, he'll be able to raise a few million dollars to make him competitive in South Carolina and Florida.
Romney should be very wary of Santorum. He's smart, able to answer any question and is absolutely unafraid to engage anybody. Romney won the Iowa caucus with 25% of the vote. That means that 75% of Republicans voted against him and most GOP voters around the country are still willing to change their minds and vote for a different candidate. That different candidate may indeed be Rick Santorum.
If Rick Santorum won the nomination and picked Marco Rubio that would be a formidable pair. A young, dynamic team from two swing states would be very tough to beat in the general election. Certainly Santorum has problems (and surely they will be revealed by the media if he's successful) but conservatives will probably put their fears aside in the hope of beating the President. Simply put, he fits what most GOP voters want; he's conservative and he's competitive and will put up a strong fight to win the nomination and the election.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Gingrich has already said he'll do whatever it takes to take Mitt Romney down. He sees Romney as a closet liberal and can't stand the idea that a conservative wouldn't be nominated by the GOP in a year in which the incumbent Democrat is so vulnerable. If Santorum can demonstrate some strength in New Hampshire I believe it is likely that most conservative GOP voters will turn to him as a reliable second choice instead of others they may favor.
Santorum's 99 county Iowa strategy really paid off. He camped out in the state for months forming strong relationships with the community and rose to the top when other conservatives fell by the wayside. And now, with so many GOP activists paying close attention (especially through the internet) they can quickly make a decision to vote for the former senator from Pennsylvania. Not only that, he'll be able to raise a few million dollars to make him competitive in South Carolina and Florida.
Romney should be very wary of Santorum. He's smart, able to answer any question and is absolutely unafraid to engage anybody. Romney won the Iowa caucus with 25% of the vote. That means that 75% of Republicans voted against him and most GOP voters around the country are still willing to change their minds and vote for a different candidate. That different candidate may indeed be Rick Santorum.
If Rick Santorum won the nomination and picked Marco Rubio that would be a formidable pair. A young, dynamic team from two swing states would be very tough to beat in the general election. Certainly Santorum has problems (and surely they will be revealed by the media if he's successful) but conservatives will probably put their fears aside in the hope of beating the President. Simply put, he fits what most GOP voters want; he's conservative and he's competitive and will put up a strong fight to win the nomination and the election.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
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