By my count there are nine seats in the Midwest that will certainly flip to the GOP this fall: Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus), Ohio CD 16 (Boccieri), Indiana CD 8 (Open), Indiana CD 9 (Hill), Wisconsin CD 8 (Kagan), Illinois CD 14 (Foster), Michigan CD 1 (Open), Michigan CD 7 (Schauer), and Michigan CD 9 (Peters). The question is how many of the other competitive seats will turn over this year? Right now I would say there are twelve seats that have at least a 50% chance of turning: Ohio CD 6, 13, 15, and 18, Indiana CD 2, Iowa CD 3, Wisconsin CD 3 and 7, and, the mother load in Illinois, CD 8, 11, 12, and 17. If the GOP were lucky enough to pick them all off, they would be halfway to control of the House of Representatives. I would bet that of these twenty they will nab sixteen.
When the GOP does retake control in January the Speaker (presumably) will be John Boehner (Ohio) and the Majority Leader will be Mike Pence (Indiana). Arguably the most powerful committee in the House (Ways and Means) will be run by little-known Dave Camp of Midland Michigan and the young firebrand from Janesville Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, will run the Budget Committee. It will be very interesting to see how the change in party will not only alter the political dialogue but the locus of power from the coasts (Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, etc) to the Midwest (Boehner, Pence, Camp). We'll just have to wait and see.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
What will happen in Wisconsin?
Wisconsin's representatives in Washington don't change much. The only House district that is generally competitive is CD 8 (Green Bay, Appleton area) while the other seven simply don't have many strong challenges. CD 5 and 6 are strongly Republican while 2 and 4 are heavily Democratic. That leaves CD 1 (Janesville, Racine, Kenosha), which for years was Les Aspin's district but now the stalwart Republican Paul Ryan has made that seat a safe GOP hold. That leaves CD 3 (Ron Kind) and CD 7 (Open). In a normal year, Ron Kind should win easily but in an anti-incumbent year he's vulnerable and a strong challenge from LaCrosse State Senator Dan Kapanke will keep the election very close. Kapanke will have the summer and fall to range up and down the western part of the state campaigning while Kind will have to stay in Washington making tough votes on Medicare, the budget, and a host of other topics. In CD 7, David Obey has decided that 41 years is enough and will not run. He went to Congress in 1969 after winning a special election and has represented the district ever since. A tough, telegenic prosecutor from the northern end of the district, Sean Duffy, now has at least an even chance of winning the seat for the GOP. District 7 starts in the north-central part of the state in Wausau (Obey's hometown) and runs northwest to Superior on the Minnesota border. Now slightly more Democratic than Republican it should be a good test case for races that are truly competitive. Hopefully we'll get some good polling data soon.
If you would have told me that Russ Feingold was vulnerable after popular four-term GOP governor Tommy Thompson dropped out I would have disagreed. Just today, however, Rasmussen Reports has published a poll that shows Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson statistically tied with Feingold. In a state that rarely defeats incumbent senators, (Feingold has been elected three times, Herb Kohl four times) this is a truly startling development. Any three-term Democrat that is getting 45% of the vote this time of the year is in great danger. This race is starting to look a lot like the Washington State race and will be fun to watch.
If you would have told me that Russ Feingold was vulnerable after popular four-term GOP governor Tommy Thompson dropped out I would have disagreed. Just today, however, Rasmussen Reports has published a poll that shows Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson statistically tied with Feingold. In a state that rarely defeats incumbent senators, (Feingold has been elected three times, Herb Kohl four times) this is a truly startling development. Any three-term Democrat that is getting 45% of the vote this time of the year is in great danger. This race is starting to look a lot like the Washington State race and will be fun to watch.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Republicans catch a huge break in Washington State
Dino Rossi, the loser of te 2004 governor's race in Washington, has decided to take on incumbent Patty Murray. First elected in 1992, Murray is looking for a fourth term in what should be her hardest election to date. A doctrinaire liberal, Murray is a leader in the Democratic caucus and should, in a normal year, be the odds-on favorite to win in November. In 2004, Rossi lost the governor's race by a little over a hundred votes in a recount process where he led for about four weeks and then was declared the loser as additional votes from Democratic King County kept popping up. A moderate, Rossi is proabably the only Republican who has a real shot at beating Murray and I give him about a 50% chance to do so. This is how I see the Senate races right now:
Flip to GOP:
North Dakota
Delaware
Indiana
Arkansas
Leaning GOP:
Illinois
Nevada
Colorado
New Hampshire
Missouri
Toss UP:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
California
Washington
Solid Dem:
Wisconsin
NY (Special)
Who Knows?
Florida-If Charlie Christ does win the election with which party will he caucus? Nobody knows.
Flip to GOP:
North Dakota
Delaware
Indiana
Arkansas
Leaning GOP:
Illinois
Nevada
Colorado
New Hampshire
Missouri
Toss UP:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
California
Washington
Solid Dem:
Wisconsin
NY (Special)
Who Knows?
Florida-If Charlie Christ does win the election with which party will he caucus? Nobody knows.
Another Tea Party Republican wins in Idaho
Raul Labrador won the Republican primary to represent the GOP in the Idaho CD 1 and will take on Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick in November. Minnick is in his first term and won by about 2% in 2008 and is very vulnerable; especially in such a deep red district. However, Minnick has voted against his party on a number of occasions and it looks like he's ready for a big fight this fall. Like the Senate race in Kentucky, the GOP establishment candidate, flush with money and endorsements, came in a distant second. It will be very curious in the next couple of weeks as several primaries are scheduled, including California and Nevada.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
4 Republicans in Trouble
If there are two House seats almost certain to flip from the GOP to the Dems this year it will be Joseph Cao (LA CD 2) and Delaware (At-Large). Cao pulled off a nearly miraculous win in 2008 in one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the country by beating scandal plagued (and now imprisoned) congressman William Jefferson. As long as the Democrats nominate a decent candidate they should prevail.
In Delaware Democratic Lt Governor Carney is a prohibitive favorite to win the open seat. Popular moderate Mike Castle is leaving the House to run for the Senate. He himself is a heavy favorite to win Joe Biden's old seat (if he does win, he'll be able to take his seat in November as soon as the election is certified, giving the GOP one more seat two months early) so both the Senate and House seats in Delaware will almost certainly flip parties this fall.
Charles Djou's House career may be only a few months long as he'll have to win again this fall after capturing 40% of the vote in Hawaii's special election last Saturday. Michael Barone thinks he can win a full term, and while I don't like to disagree with the godfather of American political prognostication, for Djou to win in HI CD1 will take an Sisyphian effort to pull it off.
Rob Portman, the popular Republican from Cincinnati who is running for the open Senate seat in Ohio, has looked surprisingly weak against his opponent, Lt Governor Lee Fisher. Ohio is slightly red and Portman is a strong candidate which should mean his poll numbers should be better than they are. While the GOP Senate candidates running for open seats in New Hampshire and Missouri seem to be pulling away for easy victories this fall, Portman will have to work hard to get his name out to win in the Buckeye State.
In Delaware Democratic Lt Governor Carney is a prohibitive favorite to win the open seat. Popular moderate Mike Castle is leaving the House to run for the Senate. He himself is a heavy favorite to win Joe Biden's old seat (if he does win, he'll be able to take his seat in November as soon as the election is certified, giving the GOP one more seat two months early) so both the Senate and House seats in Delaware will almost certainly flip parties this fall.
Charles Djou's House career may be only a few months long as he'll have to win again this fall after capturing 40% of the vote in Hawaii's special election last Saturday. Michael Barone thinks he can win a full term, and while I don't like to disagree with the godfather of American political prognostication, for Djou to win in HI CD1 will take an Sisyphian effort to pull it off.
Rob Portman, the popular Republican from Cincinnati who is running for the open Senate seat in Ohio, has looked surprisingly weak against his opponent, Lt Governor Lee Fisher. Ohio is slightly red and Portman is a strong candidate which should mean his poll numbers should be better than they are. While the GOP Senate candidates running for open seats in New Hampshire and Missouri seem to be pulling away for easy victories this fall, Portman will have to work hard to get his name out to win in the Buckeye State.
Two Pennsylvania Dems in Trouble
As I've posted before, Kathy Dahlkemper is as vulnerable an incumbent as there is in this year's cycle. A car dealer named Mike Kelly emerged from a primary loaded with contestants (always a sign of how weak the incumbent is)should be able to send Dahlkemper back to Erie in the fall.
Phil Kanjorski, whom I originally thought would be a strong position to be reelected, posted a terrible showing in the Pennsylvania primary last week and is in big trouble in November. As the very controversial banking bill draws near to the conference committee for final passage, Kanjorski will be attacked for his various ties to banking interests. As a subcommittee chairman he'll be playing defense through the summer and into the fall and I only give him a 50% chance of reelection.
Phil Kanjorski, whom I originally thought would be a strong position to be reelected, posted a terrible showing in the Pennsylvania primary last week and is in big trouble in November. As the very controversial banking bill draws near to the conference committee for final passage, Kanjorski will be attacked for his various ties to banking interests. As a subcommittee chairman he'll be playing defense through the summer and into the fall and I only give him a 50% chance of reelection.
Reagan vs. Mondale in Pennsylvania
Do you wish for an old style liberal versus conservative fist fight? You've got it in the Pennsylvania Senate race where Republican Pat Toomey will square off against Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak took out the formidable Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania's longest serving Senator in last Tuesday's primary and will now try to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Ironically, had Specter stayed a Republican he would have almost certainly been defeated by Toomey (he beat him in the 2004 primary by 19,000 votes with the full support of then-President Bush and then-Senator Santorum). Toomey should be the odds-on favorite to win this year in this slightly blue state and Sestak will have to play defense for a while until the ethics scandal of the Obama Adminstration's illegal job offer finally fizzels out. Sestak wholeheartedly voted for the health care package and has been a reliable liberal vote in his three years as a member of the House from a district right outside Philadelphia. He won the seat in 2006 after retiring from the US Navy and will fight an agressive race to win. In the end, I give Toomey a 65% chance of victory in November.
Thoughts on the KY Senate Race
In a normal year, the GOP establishment candidate, Trey Grayson, would have won the Senate primary easily and coasted to election. Grayson's candidacy was meant to keep the seat in GOP hands by forcing the incumbent, Jim Bunning, out of the race. Bunning had become an embarassment and almost lost his reelection in 2004 and was considered extremely vulnerable. Little did Grayson know that an Libertarian eye doctor named Rand Paul would not only mount a credible challenge but end up walloping him by over 20 points. If Paul can keep his mouth shut (which doesn't seem too likely) he should be easily elected. The Democrats nominated the more liberal candidate which helps Paul-especially this year. This race will be interesting to watch because Paul speaks about the constitutionality of issues-something that most Democratic and Republican candidates don't touch either because they don't care or don't know what to say. The health care debate has brought the role of government and its limits to the fore and Rand Paul will probably (for better or worse) end up driving the GOP crazy as he will constantly take the Senate floor and speak on First Principles which will force people to make decisions in the light of day.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Strange Things Can Happen: Democrats that could lose if the wave is big enough. (updates)
More info:
Florida CD 22 (Klein)-Ron Klein is set for a rematch against his 2008 opponent, Allen West. Both have plenty of money in what should be a bloodbath in Florida 22. Klein won by ten points last time so West will need a good GOP turnout if he has a shot at winning the seat.
Georgia CD 8 (Marshall)-In 2002 and 2006 Jim Marshall received 51% of the vote in this quite red district. He’ll face a vigorous GOP opponent this year in what should be the supreme test of his political life.
Illinois CD 3 (Lipinski)-It would take a lot to beat Bill Lipinski but if the wave is big enough it can wash over even a guy who seems to have few enemies on either side of the aisle and doesn’t stir much opposition from the GOP.
Indiana CD 1 (Visclosky)-Pete Visclosky’s closest race since coming into the House 13 terms ago was in 1994 when he received 56% of the vote. He usually tops the 70% range but this is a Republican year in Indiana and the state GOP is ready to fight to flip for Democratic seats in the state.
Minnesota CD 1 (Walz)-His opponent has no money but this is a district won by the GOP in the landslide of 1994 and taken by the Democrats in 2006. Will this seat turn again?
Missouri CD 4 (Skelton)-The Democratic Campaign Committee has warned Ike Skelton to start more aggressively campaigning or he could face the possibility of losing his bid for and 18th term. The venerable Chairman of the Armed Services Committee represents a deep red district in rural western Missouri, a hotbed of anti-incumbency and Tea Party activism. The Missouri GOP believes they can beat him and if a guy like Skelton is actually vulnerable there will be few safe Democrats.
Ohio CD 13 (Sutton)-Betty Sutton should win in her Democratic majority district but a multi-millionaire car dealer named Tom Ganley will battle for every vote. If they anti-incumbent wave is big enough she could be sent back to Ohio in 2011.
Utah CD 2 (Matheson)-He’ll probably make It through the cycle as this district is by far the most Democratic of the three in Utah but all incumbents in the Beehive State need to heed the danger ahead after three term GOP Senator Bob Bennett just got thrown out on his ear at the Republican state caucus. What people must remember is that the caucus was chocked full of new voters. Had the traditional voters been there Bennett would have probably been reelected but with the anti-incumbent mood the way it is anything is possible.
West Virginia CD 1 (Open)-The West Virginia GOP has long thought Mollohan vulnerable to a strong challenge and he’ll get it this year. He’s had numerous ethics complaints in the last few years and will have to defend his 14 terms in the House. Not an easy task this election cycle. Update: Alan Mollohan has been defeated in the WV primary by State Senator Mike Oliverio. We’ll have to wait for new polling info to see how the race between Oliverio and Republican David McKinley shakes out.
Florida CD 22 (Klein)-Ron Klein is set for a rematch against his 2008 opponent, Allen West. Both have plenty of money in what should be a bloodbath in Florida 22. Klein won by ten points last time so West will need a good GOP turnout if he has a shot at winning the seat.
Georgia CD 8 (Marshall)-In 2002 and 2006 Jim Marshall received 51% of the vote in this quite red district. He’ll face a vigorous GOP opponent this year in what should be the supreme test of his political life.
Illinois CD 3 (Lipinski)-It would take a lot to beat Bill Lipinski but if the wave is big enough it can wash over even a guy who seems to have few enemies on either side of the aisle and doesn’t stir much opposition from the GOP.
Indiana CD 1 (Visclosky)-Pete Visclosky’s closest race since coming into the House 13 terms ago was in 1994 when he received 56% of the vote. He usually tops the 70% range but this is a Republican year in Indiana and the state GOP is ready to fight to flip for Democratic seats in the state.
Minnesota CD 1 (Walz)-His opponent has no money but this is a district won by the GOP in the landslide of 1994 and taken by the Democrats in 2006. Will this seat turn again?
Missouri CD 4 (Skelton)-The Democratic Campaign Committee has warned Ike Skelton to start more aggressively campaigning or he could face the possibility of losing his bid for and 18th term. The venerable Chairman of the Armed Services Committee represents a deep red district in rural western Missouri, a hotbed of anti-incumbency and Tea Party activism. The Missouri GOP believes they can beat him and if a guy like Skelton is actually vulnerable there will be few safe Democrats.
Ohio CD 13 (Sutton)-Betty Sutton should win in her Democratic majority district but a multi-millionaire car dealer named Tom Ganley will battle for every vote. If they anti-incumbent wave is big enough she could be sent back to Ohio in 2011.
Utah CD 2 (Matheson)-He’ll probably make It through the cycle as this district is by far the most Democratic of the three in Utah but all incumbents in the Beehive State need to heed the danger ahead after three term GOP Senator Bob Bennett just got thrown out on his ear at the Republican state caucus. What people must remember is that the caucus was chocked full of new voters. Had the traditional voters been there Bennett would have probably been reelected but with the anti-incumbent mood the way it is anything is possible.
West Virginia CD 1 (Open)-The West Virginia GOP has long thought Mollohan vulnerable to a strong challenge and he’ll get it this year. He’s had numerous ethics complaints in the last few years and will have to defend his 14 terms in the House. Not an easy task this election cycle. Update: Alan Mollohan has been defeated in the WV primary by State Senator Mike Oliverio. We’ll have to wait for new polling info to see how the race between Oliverio and Republican David McKinley shakes out.
Democratic Congressman in Great Distress: They could easily lose this November (updates)
Removed from list:
Alabama CD 2 (Open)
Additions:
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Florida CD 2 (Boyd)-Congressman Boyd, who has never had a close election since his first in 1996, is facing a very tough test from the GOP candidate, Steve Southerland. Boyd has tried to portray himself as a moderate “Blue Dog” but decided in the last few days of the health care debate to vote in favor. Currently he’s down by double digits to Southerland.
Texas CD 17 (Edwards)-Chet Edwards represents a very red district. The Texas GOP is working hard to try to defeat him and may well succeed. In 2004 Edwards squeaked by with 51% of the vote and it will be hard to raise money and get Democrats in Independents, and Republicans to vote. Honest and well-respected my most in his district he’ll have to fight hard to win another term in Congress. I’ve moved this up to the Toss Up category. Local polls have Chet down around ten points.
More info:
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)-Altmire was elected in the Democratic year of 2006 but could find himself out of a job this year as he struggles to hold on to a seat outside Pittsburgh. He did vote against the health bill but anti-incumbency is strong in rural Pennsylvania and he will be playing defense all year.
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)-Joe Sestak has left his seat to give Arlen Specter a run for his life in the Democratic Senate primary. Sestak flipped this seat from the GOP in 2006 after leaving the US Navy and the GOP believes that this suburban Philadelphia district is ripe for the plucking.
Pennsylvania CD 11 (Kanjorski)-Paul Kanjorski is a long-term survivor in this slightly Democratic district. He had one of his closest races in 2008 winning by only four points and the GOP has targeted him again this cycle. Attacked as being an insider and a tremendous earmarker, it would not be a big surprise to see this seat flip to the GOP. Since last week I’ve moved this race up to the Toss Up category.
Alabama CD 2 (Open)
Additions:
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Florida CD 2 (Boyd)-Congressman Boyd, who has never had a close election since his first in 1996, is facing a very tough test from the GOP candidate, Steve Southerland. Boyd has tried to portray himself as a moderate “Blue Dog” but decided in the last few days of the health care debate to vote in favor. Currently he’s down by double digits to Southerland.
Texas CD 17 (Edwards)-Chet Edwards represents a very red district. The Texas GOP is working hard to try to defeat him and may well succeed. In 2004 Edwards squeaked by with 51% of the vote and it will be hard to raise money and get Democrats in Independents, and Republicans to vote. Honest and well-respected my most in his district he’ll have to fight hard to win another term in Congress. I’ve moved this up to the Toss Up category. Local polls have Chet down around ten points.
More info:
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)-Altmire was elected in the Democratic year of 2006 but could find himself out of a job this year as he struggles to hold on to a seat outside Pittsburgh. He did vote against the health bill but anti-incumbency is strong in rural Pennsylvania and he will be playing defense all year.
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)-Joe Sestak has left his seat to give Arlen Specter a run for his life in the Democratic Senate primary. Sestak flipped this seat from the GOP in 2006 after leaving the US Navy and the GOP believes that this suburban Philadelphia district is ripe for the plucking.
Pennsylvania CD 11 (Kanjorski)-Paul Kanjorski is a long-term survivor in this slightly Democratic district. He had one of his closest races in 2008 winning by only four points and the GOP has targeted him again this cycle. Attacked as being an insider and a tremendous earmarker, it would not be a big surprise to see this seat flip to the GOP. Since last week I’ve moved this race up to the Toss Up category.
Those Certain to Lose: Seats that will turn from Dem to Rep (updates)
Removed from list:
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Additions:
Alabama CD 2 (Open)-The Democratic incumbent, Bobby Bright, is running for governor in a deep red district. Bright won the district by less than 2,000 votes in 2008 and it is a safe bet that the GOP will reclaim it.
Mississippi CD1 (Childers)-Travis Childers represents a deep red district in northern Mississippi. He is currently serving his first full term after winning a special election in May 1988. The GOP is aggressively pursuing this seat as one of the most vulnerable of the cycle.
More info:
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip. Tom Reed is favored to pick this seat off for the GOP but Governor Patterson has refused to call a special election and probably will let the district be without representation until January 2011.
Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)-This is a fairly purple district but Congressman Driehaus will have a hard time being reelected as he decided at the last minute to vote for the health bill. He expressed great concern over how much it cost but suddenly was converted to the idea that it would basically be revenue-neutral. It’s an even bet he’ll only serve one term in the House.
Tennessee CD 6 (Open)-Bart Gordon is a “Blue Dog” Democrat who has decided to call it quits in this conservative district that is just east of Nashville. The GOP feels this seat will easily turn over in November.
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Additions:
Alabama CD 2 (Open)-The Democratic incumbent, Bobby Bright, is running for governor in a deep red district. Bright won the district by less than 2,000 votes in 2008 and it is a safe bet that the GOP will reclaim it.
Mississippi CD1 (Childers)-Travis Childers represents a deep red district in northern Mississippi. He is currently serving his first full term after winning a special election in May 1988. The GOP is aggressively pursuing this seat as one of the most vulnerable of the cycle.
More info:
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip. Tom Reed is favored to pick this seat off for the GOP but Governor Patterson has refused to call a special election and probably will let the district be without representation until January 2011.
Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)-This is a fairly purple district but Congressman Driehaus will have a hard time being reelected as he decided at the last minute to vote for the health bill. He expressed great concern over how much it cost but suddenly was converted to the idea that it would basically be revenue-neutral. It’s an even bet he’ll only serve one term in the House.
Tennessee CD 6 (Open)-Bart Gordon is a “Blue Dog” Democrat who has decided to call it quits in this conservative district that is just east of Nashville. The GOP feels this seat will easily turn over in November.
Special Elections Upcoming (update)
Pennsylvania CD 12 (Open) **May Special Election-This election will be held on Tuesday May 18th. Republican Tim Burns is facing former Murtha aide Mark Critz. In what is considered by most a toss-up, Burns has to be considered the favorite as he has the better ground game and a very energetic GOP electorate.
Hawaii CD 1 (Open) **Special May Election-This election will take place four days after PA-12. The Republican, Charles Djou, is facing two Democrats. Djou should be able to win as the Democrats will split their votes. All ballots are being mailed in; there will be no voting on Saturday May 22nd. This should help Djou as Republican enthusiasm to win in the Presidents’ home is high.
-As of May 10 it looks like Djou has this one just about wrapped up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled out of HI-1 effectively seeding the seat to Djou.
Hawaii CD 1 (Open) **Special May Election-This election will take place four days after PA-12. The Republican, Charles Djou, is facing two Democrats. Djou should be able to win as the Democrats will split their votes. All ballots are being mailed in; there will be no voting on Saturday May 22nd. This should help Djou as Republican enthusiasm to win in the Presidents’ home is high.
-As of May 10 it looks like Djou has this one just about wrapped up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled out of HI-1 effectively seeding the seat to Djou.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Special Elections Upcoming
Pennsylvania CD 12 (Open) **May Special Election-This election will be held on Tuesday May 18th. Republican Tim Burns is facing former Murtha aide Mark Critz. In what is considered by most a toss-up, Burns has to be considered the favorite as he has the better ground game and a very energetic GOP electorate.
Hawaii CD 1 (Open) **Special May Election-This election will take place four days after PA-12. The Republican, Charles Djou, is facing two Democrats. Djou should be able to win as the Democrats will split their votes. All ballots are being mailed in; there will be no voting on Saturday May 22nd. This should help Djou as Republican enthusiasm to win in the Presidents’ home is high.
-As of May 10 it looks like Djou has this one just about wrapped up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled out of HI-1 effectively seeding the seat to Djou.
Hawaii CD 1 (Open) **Special May Election-This election will take place four days after PA-12. The Republican, Charles Djou, is facing two Democrats. Djou should be able to win as the Democrats will split their votes. All ballots are being mailed in; there will be no voting on Saturday May 22nd. This should help Djou as Republican enthusiasm to win in the Presidents’ home is high.
-As of May 10 it looks like Djou has this one just about wrapped up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled out of HI-1 effectively seeding the seat to Djou.
Those Certain to Lose: Seats that will turn from Dem to Rep
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Arkansas CD 1 (Open)-The anti-incumbency mood in Arkansas is especially heavy. In a normal year there wouldn’t be much difficulty for the Democrats to hold this seat.
Colorado CD 4 (Markey)-Colorado is full of independents. The strong Democratic surge in 2006 and 2008 in Colorado will now show a strong GOP surge as independents swing heavily into the Republican column.
Florida CD 8 (Grayson) It is almost if this man doesn’t want to be reelected-it’s tough enough in a GOP leaning district in this climate but he continually makes outrageous statements.
Florida CD 24 (Kosmas)-Voting for the health care bill will seal her fate. With the elimination of the Administration of future NASA plans Representative Kosmas will only serve one term.
Illinois CD 14 (Foster)-The old seat of former Speaker Denny Hastert this district is nominally Republican and should revert to the GOP.
Indiana CD 8 (Open)-A conservative district being vacated by Brad Ellsworth (who is running for the Senate) the anti-incumbency mood is strong; especially as Ellsworth voted for the health care bill after promising that he wouldn’t.
Indiana CD 9 (Hill)-This district is usually very close and Baron Hill should have been ousted by his old nemesis Mike Sodrel, who held the seat previously. However, in the ultimate anti-incumbent year, Sodrel finished third in the GOP primary and Todd Young will be the new face of the 9th District.
Kansas CD 3 (Open)-Normally the area around University of Kansas gave the former incumbent a strong advantage, especially in 2006 and 2008 will not materialize this year. Fearing almost certain defeat, Dennis Moore (who admitted he didn’t read the health bill before voting for it) decided to call it quits.
Louisiana CD 3 (Open)-The incumbent is running for the Senate and this is a heavy GOP area-this is a seat certain to flip.
Michigan CD 7 (Schauer)-A surprise victor in the 2008 election, Mark Schauer will not get a second term.
Michigan CD 9 (Peters)-The strong anti-Democrat mood should be enough to boot the first term representative out of office.
Nevada CD 3 (Titus)-The Democrats are preparing for a drubbing in Nevada. Harry Reid, perhaps the most unpopular incumbent running in the Senate is ten points behind. Ironically, his son is running for governor as well. Dina Titus decided to vote for the health care bill after she said her district supported it which was clearly untrue.
New York CD 20 (Murphy)
New York CD 23 (Owens)
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip.
Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)
Ohio CD 15 (Kilroy)
Ohio CD 16 (Boccieri)
Pennsylvania CD 3 (Dahlkemper)
Tennessee CD 6 (Open)
Virginia CD 5 (Perriello)-A GOP district, Tom Perriello squeaked by his GOP opponent by less than 800 votes. The Obama turnout machine in Virginia was particularly effective and lifted Perriello across the finish line. It won’t happen this year.
Wisconsin CD 8 (Kagan). This is a GOP leaning district that has will be a prime target in 2010. There are several credible challengers that are vying for the Republican nomination and will almost certainly be elected. Kagan won in 2006 with 51% of the vote in 2006 and 54% in 2008.
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Arkansas CD 1 (Open)-The anti-incumbency mood in Arkansas is especially heavy. In a normal year there wouldn’t be much difficulty for the Democrats to hold this seat.
Colorado CD 4 (Markey)-Colorado is full of independents. The strong Democratic surge in 2006 and 2008 in Colorado will now show a strong GOP surge as independents swing heavily into the Republican column.
Florida CD 8 (Grayson) It is almost if this man doesn’t want to be reelected-it’s tough enough in a GOP leaning district in this climate but he continually makes outrageous statements.
Florida CD 24 (Kosmas)-Voting for the health care bill will seal her fate. With the elimination of the Administration of future NASA plans Representative Kosmas will only serve one term.
Illinois CD 14 (Foster)-The old seat of former Speaker Denny Hastert this district is nominally Republican and should revert to the GOP.
Indiana CD 8 (Open)-A conservative district being vacated by Brad Ellsworth (who is running for the Senate) the anti-incumbency mood is strong; especially as Ellsworth voted for the health care bill after promising that he wouldn’t.
Indiana CD 9 (Hill)-This district is usually very close and Baron Hill should have been ousted by his old nemesis Mike Sodrel, who held the seat previously. However, in the ultimate anti-incumbent year, Sodrel finished third in the GOP primary and Todd Young will be the new face of the 9th District.
Kansas CD 3 (Open)-Normally the area around University of Kansas gave the former incumbent a strong advantage, especially in 2006 and 2008 will not materialize this year. Fearing almost certain defeat, Dennis Moore (who admitted he didn’t read the health bill before voting for it) decided to call it quits.
Louisiana CD 3 (Open)-The incumbent is running for the Senate and this is a heavy GOP area-this is a seat certain to flip.
Michigan CD 7 (Schauer)-A surprise victor in the 2008 election, Mark Schauer will not get a second term.
Michigan CD 9 (Peters)-The strong anti-Democrat mood should be enough to boot the first term representative out of office.
Nevada CD 3 (Titus)-The Democrats are preparing for a drubbing in Nevada. Harry Reid, perhaps the most unpopular incumbent running in the Senate is ten points behind. Ironically, his son is running for governor as well. Dina Titus decided to vote for the health care bill after she said her district supported it which was clearly untrue.
New York CD 20 (Murphy)
New York CD 23 (Owens)
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip.
Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)
Ohio CD 15 (Kilroy)
Ohio CD 16 (Boccieri)
Pennsylvania CD 3 (Dahlkemper)
Tennessee CD 6 (Open)
Virginia CD 5 (Perriello)-A GOP district, Tom Perriello squeaked by his GOP opponent by less than 800 votes. The Obama turnout machine in Virginia was particularly effective and lifted Perriello across the finish line. It won’t happen this year.
Wisconsin CD 8 (Kagan). This is a GOP leaning district that has will be a prime target in 2010. There are several credible challengers that are vying for the Republican nomination and will almost certainly be elected. Kagan won in 2006 with 51% of the vote in 2006 and 54% in 2008.
Democratic Congressman in Great Distress: They could easily lose this November
Alabama CD 2 (Open)
Arkansas CD 2 (Open)
Colorado CD 3 (Salazar)
Georgia CD 12 (Barrow)-Barrow faces a fight from the Left and the Right in his district. He’ll almost certainly emerge from the primary as the Democratic nominee but he’ll have to face an invigorated GOP opponent. He faced tough opponents in 2004 and 2006 and barely scraped by both times. He’ll be hard pressed to repeat the performance.
Idaho CD 1 (Minnick)-This is a strong GOP district and it was nearly a miracle that Walt Minnick was elected in the first place. Voting against the health plan was a plus but he’ll face a tough GOP opponent in the fall.
Illinois CD 8 (Bean)-Melissa Bean beat a GOP powerhouse Congressman named Phil Crane in 2004 and has served this district ever since. Once deep red, it has become quite the purple district as a lot of Democrats have fled the city of Chicago and have moved in. Bean is vulnerable this year as she did vote for the health care package and will face a tough opponent in a year where the GOP candidates for governor and senator in Illinois will probably lead the winning ticket.
Illinois CD 11 (Halvorson)
Illinois CD 12 (Costello)
Illinois CD 17 (Hare)-For once Phil Hare will be vulnerable. He made a complete fool of himself in a town hall meeting as he didn’t know the difference between the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution while he was vainly trying to debate a constituent about the health care bill. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he loses in the fall.
Indiana CD 2 (Donnelly)
Iowa CD 1 (Braley)
Iowa CD 2 (Loebsack)
Iowa CD 3 (Boswell)-Leonard Boswell is in deep trouble this year. In a purple district he’s facing a stiff GOP challenge. While respected by most Iowans for his honesty and integrity, the anti-Obama wave could easily overcome him in the Hawkeye State.
Kentucky CD 3 (Yarmuth)
Maryland CD 1 (Kratovil)-The is a strong GOP district and Frank Kratovil squeaked by in 2008 because the incumbent GOP congressman, Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the primary and ended up endorsing the Democrat. That, combined with a strong Democratic turnout put Kratovil over the top by abour 3,000 votes. He did vote against the health care package but he’s in deep trouble.
Massachusetts CD 10 (Open)-Bill Delahunt decided to retire than face the distinct possibility of a loss. This is by far the best chance for the GOP to pick up their first House seat in Massachusetts in years. Scott Brown did very well in MA10 and the GOP is putting up a solid candidate. I would bet that this seat will switch in November.
New Hampshire CD 1 (Shea-Porter)-One of the weaker incumbents in this year’s election, Carol Shea Porter is in deep trouble in New Hampshire. Surprising nearly everyone in 2006 Shea-Porter won on a deep mood of anti-George Bush sentiment in the Granite State. New Hampshire had been reliably red for many years but has turned blue lately. However, Shea-Porter’s luck may be running out as the former GOP opponent, Jeb Bradley is running again and is ahead of her in the polls. She was recently heckled at a town hall meeting for suggesting that the new health care bill will actually bring down the federal deficit. Clearly she’ll be playing defense all summer and fall.
New Hampshire CD 2 (Open)-Paul Hodes has decided to run for the Senate and Charlie Bass, the GOP incumbent he beat in 2006 is leading in the polls. This district leans slightly Democratic but it will be tough to beat Bass this year.
New Jersey CD 3 (Adler)-John Adler is in the fight for his life against a colorful GOP opponent, former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan. This district is slightly Republican and Adler is only in his first term; it won’t be surprising if he doesn’t get his second.
New Jersey CD 12 (Holt)
New York CD 2 (Israel)
New York CD 13 (McMahon)
New York CD 19 (Hall)
New York CD 24 (Arcuri)
New York CD 25 (Maffei)
New York CD 27 (Higgins)
North Carolina CD 2 (Etheridge)
North Carolina CD 7 (McIntyre)
North Carolina CD 8 (Kissel)
North Carolina CD (Shuler)
North Dakota At Large (Pomeroy)-A titan in North Dakota politics Earl Pomeroy is in the fight of his life. His opponent, GOP state legislator Rick Berg is running ahead of him in most polls. The Plains states have seen the most resistance to the health care bill and Pomeroy is being held accountable. Senator Dorgan already saw the writing on the wall and retired instead of losing and Pomeroy may be next.
Ohio CD 6 (Wilson)
Ohio CD 17 (Ryan)
Ohio CD 18 (Space)
Oregon CD 5 (Schrader)
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)
Pennsylvania CD 8 (Murphy)
Pennsylvania CD 10 (Carney)
Pennsylvania CD 17 (Holden)
South Dakota At Large (Herseth-Sandlin)-While she voted against the health care bill Congresswoman Sandlin is in the political fight for her life. While slightly ahead in most polls she is not reaching 50% and the South Dakota GOP is well organized and is aiming to unseat her.
Tennessee CD 4 (Davis)
Tennessee CD 8 (Open)
Virginia CD 2 (Nye)-Glenn Nye unseated a GOP congresswoman in 2008 riding the wave of a strong Obama GOTV operation. This district leans Republican, especially among the strong military presence in the area. This district voted overwhelmingly in the 2009 Virginia governor’s race and Nye knows he facing a tough reelection race.
Virginia CD 9 (Boucher)-Rick Boucher hasn’t had a close election since 1984 but he’s in trouble this year. Like CD 2, this district voted heavily for the GOP in the 2009 governor’s election the average voter in this district is in a foul mood. Afraid of the administration’s climate change bill, Rick Boucher may fall victim to the anti-incumbent sentiment that has swept the coal mining areas of Appalachia.
Virginia CD 11 (Connolly)-Gerald Connolly flipped a GOP district in 2008 but is running behind in polls this year. Again, most of Virginia has turned redder and CD11 is no different. It would not be surprising if Connolly doesn’t win a second term.
Washington CD 3 (Open)-Brian Baird has decided to retire and the GOP has a chance to win this perfectly purple district.
Wisconsin CD 3 (Kind)-Ron Kind will face a very tough opponent this year as State Senator Dan Kapanke from LaCrosse. Kind has cruised through his last few elections and has been able to stay below the radar for years but now he’ll face the test of his life.
Wisconsin CD 7 (Open)-Facing his first seriously contested election since 1994, David Obey decided to retire than take a chance on losing to Sean Duffy, the Republican District Attorney from Ashland County.
Arkansas CD 2 (Open)
Colorado CD 3 (Salazar)
Georgia CD 12 (Barrow)-Barrow faces a fight from the Left and the Right in his district. He’ll almost certainly emerge from the primary as the Democratic nominee but he’ll have to face an invigorated GOP opponent. He faced tough opponents in 2004 and 2006 and barely scraped by both times. He’ll be hard pressed to repeat the performance.
Idaho CD 1 (Minnick)-This is a strong GOP district and it was nearly a miracle that Walt Minnick was elected in the first place. Voting against the health plan was a plus but he’ll face a tough GOP opponent in the fall.
Illinois CD 8 (Bean)-Melissa Bean beat a GOP powerhouse Congressman named Phil Crane in 2004 and has served this district ever since. Once deep red, it has become quite the purple district as a lot of Democrats have fled the city of Chicago and have moved in. Bean is vulnerable this year as she did vote for the health care package and will face a tough opponent in a year where the GOP candidates for governor and senator in Illinois will probably lead the winning ticket.
Illinois CD 11 (Halvorson)
Illinois CD 12 (Costello)
Illinois CD 17 (Hare)-For once Phil Hare will be vulnerable. He made a complete fool of himself in a town hall meeting as he didn’t know the difference between the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution while he was vainly trying to debate a constituent about the health care bill. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he loses in the fall.
Indiana CD 2 (Donnelly)
Iowa CD 1 (Braley)
Iowa CD 2 (Loebsack)
Iowa CD 3 (Boswell)-Leonard Boswell is in deep trouble this year. In a purple district he’s facing a stiff GOP challenge. While respected by most Iowans for his honesty and integrity, the anti-Obama wave could easily overcome him in the Hawkeye State.
Kentucky CD 3 (Yarmuth)
Maryland CD 1 (Kratovil)-The is a strong GOP district and Frank Kratovil squeaked by in 2008 because the incumbent GOP congressman, Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the primary and ended up endorsing the Democrat. That, combined with a strong Democratic turnout put Kratovil over the top by abour 3,000 votes. He did vote against the health care package but he’s in deep trouble.
Massachusetts CD 10 (Open)-Bill Delahunt decided to retire than face the distinct possibility of a loss. This is by far the best chance for the GOP to pick up their first House seat in Massachusetts in years. Scott Brown did very well in MA10 and the GOP is putting up a solid candidate. I would bet that this seat will switch in November.
New Hampshire CD 1 (Shea-Porter)-One of the weaker incumbents in this year’s election, Carol Shea Porter is in deep trouble in New Hampshire. Surprising nearly everyone in 2006 Shea-Porter won on a deep mood of anti-George Bush sentiment in the Granite State. New Hampshire had been reliably red for many years but has turned blue lately. However, Shea-Porter’s luck may be running out as the former GOP opponent, Jeb Bradley is running again and is ahead of her in the polls. She was recently heckled at a town hall meeting for suggesting that the new health care bill will actually bring down the federal deficit. Clearly she’ll be playing defense all summer and fall.
New Hampshire CD 2 (Open)-Paul Hodes has decided to run for the Senate and Charlie Bass, the GOP incumbent he beat in 2006 is leading in the polls. This district leans slightly Democratic but it will be tough to beat Bass this year.
New Jersey CD 3 (Adler)-John Adler is in the fight for his life against a colorful GOP opponent, former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan. This district is slightly Republican and Adler is only in his first term; it won’t be surprising if he doesn’t get his second.
New Jersey CD 12 (Holt)
New York CD 2 (Israel)
New York CD 13 (McMahon)
New York CD 19 (Hall)
New York CD 24 (Arcuri)
New York CD 25 (Maffei)
New York CD 27 (Higgins)
North Carolina CD 2 (Etheridge)
North Carolina CD 7 (McIntyre)
North Carolina CD 8 (Kissel)
North Carolina CD (Shuler)
North Dakota At Large (Pomeroy)-A titan in North Dakota politics Earl Pomeroy is in the fight of his life. His opponent, GOP state legislator Rick Berg is running ahead of him in most polls. The Plains states have seen the most resistance to the health care bill and Pomeroy is being held accountable. Senator Dorgan already saw the writing on the wall and retired instead of losing and Pomeroy may be next.
Ohio CD 6 (Wilson)
Ohio CD 17 (Ryan)
Ohio CD 18 (Space)
Oregon CD 5 (Schrader)
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)
Pennsylvania CD 8 (Murphy)
Pennsylvania CD 10 (Carney)
Pennsylvania CD 17 (Holden)
South Dakota At Large (Herseth-Sandlin)-While she voted against the health care bill Congresswoman Sandlin is in the political fight for her life. While slightly ahead in most polls she is not reaching 50% and the South Dakota GOP is well organized and is aiming to unseat her.
Tennessee CD 4 (Davis)
Tennessee CD 8 (Open)
Virginia CD 2 (Nye)-Glenn Nye unseated a GOP congresswoman in 2008 riding the wave of a strong Obama GOTV operation. This district leans Republican, especially among the strong military presence in the area. This district voted overwhelmingly in the 2009 Virginia governor’s race and Nye knows he facing a tough reelection race.
Virginia CD 9 (Boucher)-Rick Boucher hasn’t had a close election since 1984 but he’s in trouble this year. Like CD 2, this district voted heavily for the GOP in the 2009 governor’s election the average voter in this district is in a foul mood. Afraid of the administration’s climate change bill, Rick Boucher may fall victim to the anti-incumbent sentiment that has swept the coal mining areas of Appalachia.
Virginia CD 11 (Connolly)-Gerald Connolly flipped a GOP district in 2008 but is running behind in polls this year. Again, most of Virginia has turned redder and CD11 is no different. It would not be surprising if Connolly doesn’t win a second term.
Washington CD 3 (Open)-Brian Baird has decided to retire and the GOP has a chance to win this perfectly purple district.
Wisconsin CD 3 (Kind)-Ron Kind will face a very tough opponent this year as State Senator Dan Kapanke from LaCrosse. Kind has cruised through his last few elections and has been able to stay below the radar for years but now he’ll face the test of his life.
Wisconsin CD 7 (Open)-Facing his first seriously contested election since 1994, David Obey decided to retire than take a chance on losing to Sean Duffy, the Republican District Attorney from Ashland County.
Strange Things Can Happen: Democrats that could lose if the wave is big enough.
Arkansas CD 4 (Ross)
California CD 11 (McNerney)
California CD 18 (Cardoza)
California CD 20 (Costa)
California CD 47 (Sanchez)
Colorado CD 7 (Perlmutter)
Connecticut CD 2 (Courtney)
Connecticut CD 4 (Hines)
Connecticut CD 5 (Murphy)
Florida CD 22 (Klein)
Georgia CD 8 (Marshall)
Illinois CD 3 (Lipinski)
Indiana CD 1 (Visclosky)
Maine CD 2 (Michaud)
Minnesota CD 1 (Walz)
Missouri CD 4 (Skelton)
New Mexico CD 1 (Heinrich)
New York CD 1 (Bishop)
New York CD 27 (Higgins)
Ohio CD 13 (Sutton)
Pennsylvania CD 11 (Kanjorski)-Paul Kanjorski is a long-term survivor in this slightly Democratic district. He had one of his closest races in 2008 winning by only four points and the GOP has targeted him again this cycle. Attacked as being an insider and a tremendous earmarker, it would not be a big surprise to see this seat flip to the GOP.
Rhode Island CD 1 (Open)
South Carolina CD 5 (Spratt)
Tennessee CD 5 (Cooper)
Texas CD 17 (Edwards)-Chet Edwards represents a very red district. The Texas GOP is working hard to try to defeat him and may well succeed. In 2004 Edwards squeaked by with 51% of the vote and it will be hard to raise money and get Democrats in Independents, and Republicans to vote. Honest and well-respected my most in his district he’ll have to fight hard to win another term in Congress.
Texas CD 23 (Rodriguez)
Texas CD 28 (Cuellar)
Utah CD 2 (Matheson)
Washington CD 2 (Larson)
Washington CD 6 (Dicks)
West Virginia CD 1 (Mollohan)
California CD 11 (McNerney)
California CD 18 (Cardoza)
California CD 20 (Costa)
California CD 47 (Sanchez)
Colorado CD 7 (Perlmutter)
Connecticut CD 2 (Courtney)
Connecticut CD 4 (Hines)
Connecticut CD 5 (Murphy)
Florida CD 22 (Klein)
Georgia CD 8 (Marshall)
Illinois CD 3 (Lipinski)
Indiana CD 1 (Visclosky)
Maine CD 2 (Michaud)
Minnesota CD 1 (Walz)
Missouri CD 4 (Skelton)
New Mexico CD 1 (Heinrich)
New York CD 1 (Bishop)
New York CD 27 (Higgins)
Ohio CD 13 (Sutton)
Pennsylvania CD 11 (Kanjorski)-Paul Kanjorski is a long-term survivor in this slightly Democratic district. He had one of his closest races in 2008 winning by only four points and the GOP has targeted him again this cycle. Attacked as being an insider and a tremendous earmarker, it would not be a big surprise to see this seat flip to the GOP.
Rhode Island CD 1 (Open)
South Carolina CD 5 (Spratt)
Tennessee CD 5 (Cooper)
Texas CD 17 (Edwards)-Chet Edwards represents a very red district. The Texas GOP is working hard to try to defeat him and may well succeed. In 2004 Edwards squeaked by with 51% of the vote and it will be hard to raise money and get Democrats in Independents, and Republicans to vote. Honest and well-respected my most in his district he’ll have to fight hard to win another term in Congress.
Texas CD 23 (Rodriguez)
Texas CD 28 (Cuellar)
Utah CD 2 (Matheson)
Washington CD 2 (Larson)
Washington CD 6 (Dicks)
West Virginia CD 1 (Mollohan)
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