Ben Nelson drops out

Once the most popular Democratic politician in Nebraska (he won reelection in 2006 by 26 points) Ben Nelson was probably headed for a huge loss next year no matter what GOP candidate would have emerged to face him. After being bribed to accept the President's health care plan in 2009, Nelson had a hard time even appearing in public in his home state to even eat dinner (he got booed out of at least one restaurant). It is a remarkable fall for someone once considered a "moderate" Democrat. The last three years have been hard on those Democrats who have tried to portray themselves as moderates or even conseratives. When George Bush was in office they could take positions that would shield them from too much controversy but once President Obama took office their true colors were exposed as Harry Reid in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House demanded, begged, bribed and pleaded for their support. In the end, it will cost the most of the moderate and conservative Democrats who are still in the two chambers their jobs. In the end, Ben Nelson's departure might help the Democrats nationally. While that may see contradictory, it is true. Had Nelson run, the DNC would have been forced to spend a lot of money defending his seat and still probably lose. Now they can simply write it off and spend their cash elsewhere.

Sincerely,

The Snitch

Can Bobby Jindal be drafted?

If Rick Perry drops out (which I predict he will do immediately after Iowa) than Governor Jindal might consider it. He's a big Perry supporter so he's have to wait until Perry steps aside. Jindal would be a dream shot for most conservatives and they would flock to him. He would have to accept quickly to try to get on the ballot in several states to fight off Mitt Romney. Jindal has gotten some intense pressure lately to come in. A Jindal/Rubio ticket would be virtually unbeatable. We'll see.

Respectfully,

The Snitch

Can Santorum come in 2nd in Iowa?

The short answer is yes. This is the most fluid GOP primary in modern times. Two weeks ago Newt Gingrich was in command but has rapidly fallen out of the first tier of contenders as negative attacks have decimated his campaign. Conservative voters, looking for an alternative other than Mitt Romney, really have only one option left: Rick Santorum. Granted, Santorum has very little organization outside of Iowa and seems like an impossibly long shot but he's in a better position than most think. He's visited every corner of the state and has forged strong bonds that will pay off on the night of the caucus. I think it very possible that Santorum will finish at least 3rd, if not 2nd. Romney and Paul's supporters are pretty much locked in and those two candidates aren't going to move very much-in fact Paul's support will probably go down as his nutty positions become better known throughout the electorate.

If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.

Respectfully,

The Snitch

Gingrich in Command?

With a little over three weeks to go until the Iowa caucus, the GOP race is still as fluid as ever. Even though Newt Gingrich seems to be ahead nationally he may have peaked a bit too early as the other Republican candidates continually attack him through the media, especially in Iowa. Either Gingrich or Romney will win in Iowa but Ron Paul may end up with a very surprising chunk of the vote (10-22%)and I do think Rick Santorum will end up with significantly more (5-12%) than our polling is showing. The other candidates will end up in single digits and will be totally knocked out after the New Hampshire primary.

It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.

I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.

Respectfully,

The Snitch