Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Final Talley

Sorry I couldn't get this on the board until now.  Can't blog at work.

Here's what I think:
Romney 295 EVs
Obama   243 EVs

Romney wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida and Virginia.
Obama wins Pennsylvania and Nevada.

GOP +3 in the Senate  (The GOP candidate for the Senate will win in PA)
GOP +3 in the House

Romney 50.4
Obama   48.5
Other       1.1


The Snitch

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Fundamentals still favor Romney

What a crazy season!  Nobody really knows where we are with early voting, partisan polling, etc.  But I'd like to post what I think might be one of the most accurate summaries of what should happen courtesy of the website Baseball Crank:

We can't know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republicanturnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney's advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.
Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.


The Snitch

Thursday, November 1, 2012

View on the races for the US Senate

What should have been an easy GOP win a few months ago is turning out to be much closer than anticipated.  Two seats in Missouri and Indiana should have been easy GOP pickups but both candidates have stepped on their tongues and (at least in Missouri) will probably cost the Republicans a seat.  As in 2010 when the GOP should have picked up seats in Delaware and Nevada, they insisted on   nominating candidates that were unacceptable to the general public.  Here's how I see it working out today:

Seats the Dems will most likely pick up:

Maine:  Almost certainly won by the Independent candidate in the race who will caucus with the Democrats

Massachusetts: Scott Brown has to pick up so many independents and a few Democrats in the state that it is almost impossible to win; even against an absolutely terrible candidate like Elizabeth Warren.

Indiana: Had the GOP decided to renominate Richard Lugar this wouldn't even be a discussion but since Richard Mourdock made his unfortunate comments about rape he may end up losing a seat he should have won.  He did win easily statewide in 2010 as the Treasurer of Indiana so he is a proven vote getter but it remains to be seen if he can ride the Republican wave that is powered by Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket.

Arizona: Jeff Flake could lose this seat but I give him about an 80% chance of beating his Democratic challenger.

Nevada: It looks like Dean Heller will retain his seat.  This election looks to be over.

Seats the GOP should pick up:

Nebraska: This is much closer now than two months ago.  Deb Fischer is only a few points ahead of Bob Kerrey, the former governor and senator.  Mitt Romney should carry the state by more than 30 points and that should put Fisher over the top.

North Dakota:  Rick Berg should beat the Democratic Attorney General in the battle for the open seat.

Wisconsin:  I know this seat is close but Tommy Thompson should prevail over the ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin.

Montana:  Jon Tester should lose to Republican challenger Denny Rehberg.  It is close but in the end Rehberg wins.

Toss Ups:

Ohio:  A race going right down to the wire.  Josh Mandel has been trailing the incumbent Democrat but with the Republican GOTV effort he'll prevail if Mitt Romney wins the state.  If Romney wins Mandel probably does to, and vice versa.

Virginia: George Allen should be helped by a massive Mitt Romney GOTV effort.  I suspect Romney will win the state by 4-5 points and that might be enough to pull Allen over the finish line to replace Jim Webb.

Pennsylvania: Republican Tom Smith is tied with incumbent Bob Casey.  I think this may be the biggest surprise on election night.  My gut tells me Smith will win this race.

Leaning Democrat:

Connecticut: Chris Murphy should beat Linda McMahon in this heavily Democratic state.

Florida: Bill Nelson should be able to prevail against a terrible GOP candidate in what should be a Republican win against a very liberal Democrat.

Missouri:  See the first paragraph.


Hawaii:  If Mitt Romney sweeps Florida, Ohio and Virginia early enough in the evening enough dejected Democrats may stay home.  That's her only chance of winning.

Probably not a contest:

Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota.  The Democrats should retain these three seats.

Simply put, there's simply too many variables so we won't know until probably Wednesday how the Senate will look.  If the GOP runs the table they max out at 55 seats but if they don't do well on Tuesday they'll be somewhere (probably in the high 40s).  It is simply too hard to tell.


The Snitch