Sunday, November 6, 2011

Romney vs. Cain for the nomination

Now that Herman Cain seems to have survived the accusations of sexual harassment his polling numbers have leveled out to a basic tie with Mitt Romney. Cain didn't handle the scandal very well and, perhaps even worse, gave a terrible answer about China's nuclear arsenal that seemed to indicate he doesn't know anything about it. However, he seems to have weathered the worst of it and is starting to counterattack his political critics and go back on the offensive.

The primary (and the general election for that matter) is a state-by-state affair and in this scenario Romney prevails (see previous post). Newt Gingrich's rise has been remarkable and he's almost in striking range as the clear man in third place. It is possible if Cain does fade that Gingrich could end up being the conservative's choice against Romney. Like I've said before, Romney's numbers continue to stay about the same (somewhere in the mid-20s) while everyone else in the running continues to rise and fall.

To me it is clear that everyone else is out, including Texas governor Rick Perry. In the end, it will either be Romney or Cain. We're simply too far into the cycle for anyone who has already declared to rise and surpass the top two. Moreover, the filing deadline is passing for the early primary states so any other prospective candidate won't be able to get on the ballot. In the end, Cain or Romney will most likely be nominated unless there is a split convention (if nobody gets the requisite votes) and the delegates decide to go to someone else. We'll have to wait and see.


The Snitch

No comments:

Post a Comment