Saturday, January 28, 2012

The GOP nomination for President is over

Mitt Romney will crush Newt Gingrich in Florida next Tuesday. I predict he'll win by at least ten points in a winner-take-all primary in the Sunshine State. Gingrich needed to do well in the more conservative states (especially in the south) to compete with Romney nationally. Romney will do very well in more moderate states (like California and Connecticut) so it was imperative for Gingrich to repeat his South Carolina success in Florida. Unable to do it, he'll flutter for a few more weeks and then disappear. Unlike the Democratic primary, most Republican primaries reward the winner with all the delegates which always favors a candidate like Romney who can count on 25-30% of any states GOP voters. As long as Gingrich, Santorum and Paul split up the rest of the votes Romney will be sitting in the catbird seat.

Unless something really strange happens Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee. Within the next two weeks that will become very clear as he competes next in Nevada and Maine and should have it wrapped up by Super Tuesday on March 6.


The Snitch

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