If the election were today the GOP will pick up at least 5 seats, making the split 52-47 for the next Congress. Here's a breakdown:
-Wisconsin (If Tommy Thompson is nominated)
Probable GOP Holds
Probable GOP Loss
Possible GOP takeovers:
-Ohio (Josh Mandel should, in the end, beat the Democratic incumbent)
-Virginia (This is a death match between two former governors-who wins at the top of the ticket will probably help his party's Senate nominee)
-Florida (Connie Mack Jr. should beat Bill Nelson but the incumbent still has fight in him.
-North Dakota (An open seat with a popular former Democratic Attorney General running against a first-term GOP House member)
-New Mexico (Leaning Democratic but Republican Heather Wilson is now within the margin of error)
Probable Democratic Holds
-Michigan (Stabenow will probably keep the seat but this one could flip if the electorate moved strongly against the President)
-Pennsylvania (A weak Democratic incumbent is probably going to get a pass on this as no strong GOP alternative has emerged)
-Connecticut (If the GOP electorate insists on nominated Linda McMahon again instead of Chris Shays they'll have no shot at this seat)
No Shot for the GOP
Again the movement of 3-8 seats is probable for the GOP but I predict 5 will fall.