Sunday, April 1, 2012

The Senate Scorecard in April

If the election were today the GOP will pick up at least 5 seats, making the split 52-47 for the next Congress. Here's a breakdown:

GOP Takeovers
-Wisconsin (If Tommy Thompson is nominated)

Probable GOP Holds

Probable GOP Loss

Possible GOP takeovers:
-Ohio (Josh Mandel should, in the end, beat the Democratic incumbent)
-Virginia (This is a death match between two former governors-who wins at the top of the ticket will probably help his party's Senate nominee)
-Florida (Connie Mack Jr. should beat Bill Nelson but the incumbent still has fight in him.
-North Dakota (An open seat with a popular former Democratic Attorney General running against a first-term GOP House member)
-New Mexico (Leaning Democratic but Republican Heather Wilson is now within the margin of error)

Probable Democratic Holds
-Michigan (Stabenow will probably keep the seat but this one could flip if the electorate moved strongly against the President)
-Pennsylvania (A weak Democratic incumbent is probably going to get a pass on this as no strong GOP alternative has emerged)
-West Virginia
-Connecticut (If the GOP electorate insists on nominated Linda McMahon again instead of Chris Shays they'll have no shot at this seat)
-New Jersey

No Shot for the GOP
-Rhode Island
-New York

Again the movement of 3-8 seats is probable for the GOP but I predict 5 will fall.


The Snitch

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