Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Romney's path to 270 electoral votes

Romney’s Path to 270: Which states he needs to turn from blue to red to win in November.  (This model assumes Obama will not win any states that he didn’t carry in 2008)

The five he must have: If he doesn’t win these he’s got almost no shot.  These states are listed from most likely to flip to least likely. 2008 red states are already figured into the EV total.
State                            Number of EVs         Total EVs
Indiana                        11                                191     
North Carolina            15                                206
Florida                        29                                235
Virginia                       13                                248
Ohio                           18                                266

If he wins the above five states he would only have to win one more to put him over the top.  I’ve put the states in order from most likely to flip from blue to red to least likely.
New Hampshire          4                                 270*
Iowa                           6                                 276
Colorado                    9                                 285
Wisconsin                   10                                295
Nevada                       6                                 301
Pennsylvania               20                                321
Minnesota                   10                                331
New Mexico               5                                 336
Michigan                     16                                351
Oregon                        7                                 358
New Jersey                 14                                372**
Maine                          4                                 376***

*Romney victory
**The only probable way New Jersey is in play is if Romney puts Chris Christie on the ticket.
***Maine splits its EVs so Romney may pick up just one but he could win up to four.
The rest of the blue states that were not mentioned are almost certainly out of reach for Mitt Romney.  If he did win some of them (Connecticut would be a good example) the election would be a complete blowout.  If Romney does get around 53% of the vote (which is about what Barack Obama got in 2008) I suspect he’ll get somewhere around 330 EVs.  In 2008 Obama got 365 EVs with 52.9% which should mean that Romney should have more EVs if he does receive 53%.  However, the big blue states (California, New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois) along with a bunch of the smaller ones will go to the President even in a blowout scenario so Romney’s EV total can’t reach much past 350.  In any event, Romney would be the winner and probably wouldn’t care as long as he won a decisive victory in which he carried a majority of the popular vote and a majority of the EVs, which would convince most voters of the legitimacy of his victory.

The Snitch

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