Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Are The Polls Wrong?

I believe the short answer is probably yes.  Right now most of the major polling organizations (with the exception of Rasmussen Reports) are using a party identification model that favors Democrats when the best info we have shows that the GOP has a 2-4 point lead in self-identification.  This explains why with political independents favoring Romney by around ten points he's still behind in many polls because of the skew to the Democrats.

In 2004 Democrats lead in party identification by about 1.5% and George W. Bush won the election by about 2%, sealing the victory with a 118,000 vote victory in Ohio.  If the GOP have overtaken the Democrats in party ID I strongly suspect that the models that have Obama up 2-5 in Ohio are probably wrong and the race is too close to call in the Buckeye State.

The GOP has successfully narrowed party registration in most of the swing states but are still behind in places like Florida but have made gains throughout the country.  It will certainly help in Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Virginia but, again, we'll have to see about Ohio.

Checking polls this early is like trying to follow who is Number #1 in College Football this time of year; it just doesn't say all that much.  The first debate is next Wednesday, October 3 and I would seriously look at the polls the next Monday, October 8 to get a good idea of the trend lines.

Anyone who thinks Mitt Romney is somehow lost  this race has lost their mind or simply doesn't know what they are talking about.  Let's wait until after the debate to make some good guesses.


The Snitch

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