Ben Nelson used to be the most popular Democrat in Nebraska. Considered a moderate until 2009, he's almost universally despised in the Cornhusker State after voting for the Administration's health care bill. He's already trailing prominent Republicans and his negative ratings are sky high. Quite simply, Nelson will end up like Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas-losing by 15 points or more. Nebraska will probably give a 60/40 advantage to the GOP Presidential candidate which will only help all the down-ballot Republicans. If I were Ben Nelson, I would retire and save myself the time and embarrasment of such a momumental defeat.
In Montana, the GOP's dream candidate, Dennis Rehberg, has decided to run against Jon Tester. Rehberg is the very popular at-large Congressman from the state and routinely wins elections by huge margins. Much like Nebraska, Montana will turn out liberal Democrats who pose as moderates in 2012. While the Rehberg/Tester race will be closer than the Nebraska contest, Rehberg will win by at least 10 percentage points.