Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Independents leaning heavily Republican
Gallup and Rasmussen are both reporting large shifts towards the GOP in the Independent vote in almost every electoral group. With the exception of African-Americans, the President and the Democratic-controlled Congress lost significant ground with every major group. Gallup reports that in their history of reporting they have never seen such bad reelect numbers for the current Congress. Their approval rating is under 20%, and, with tough votes coming in the fall it doesn't promise to get much better. In states where Independents rule (like Colorado) this will have a huge impact especially when combined with Republican voter enthusiasm. In Ohio in 2008 Barack Obama spent a lot more time and money than John Kerry did in 2004 and did only marginally better in his vote total but he easily turned the state blue. Why? Several hundred thousand Republican voters simply stayed home-tired of George Bush, large budgets, the war and the financial crisis. Conversely, the Democratic turnout was heavy and very enthusiastic. This year in Ohio the GOP has the enthusiasm and will easily win the Independent vote. This should put John Kasich over the top in the governor's race and Rob Portman into the US Senate as well as at least two (if not more) GOP members into the House of Representatives. This senario should play out in most states which will translate into Republican wins up and down the ballot. You'll see a lot more GOP members in their respective states' assemblies and senates as well as offices like Attorney General. All in all, it should be a wave election much like 2006 and 2008. Three waves in a row; very uncommon but understandable considering all of the upheaval we've experiened in the last few years.