In November the House will flip to the GOP but how many seats will the Democrats lose in the Senate? Let's take a look:
Seats certain to flip to the GOP:
Seats leaning hard to the GOP:
Seats leaning to the GOP:
True toss ups:
Seats that may flip to the Dems:
It is quite reasonable to think the GOP will pick up at least seven seats but they could get ten or more if they ran the table. It is not impossible-wave elections (1936, 1946, 1958, 1974, 1980, 1994, 2006) produced that kind of result.
Harry Reid looks to be almost finished in Nevada. His state continues to struggle in the recession with one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation. He'll need a lot of help to survive-nobody has ever been reelected to the Senate with his kind of negative ratings. If Reid does lose look for Chuck Schumer to try to jump over Dick Durbin for leadership of the Democratic caucus.
Barbara Boxer is tied in her race to win a fourth term. California, much like Nevada, is suffering terribly from the recession and many are blaming Boxer as she is so close to the Administration. There is a heavy Democratic advantage voter registration and that should help her but she is certainly floundering and may lose in November.
There's been a poll in Maryland that shows a competitive race for Barbara Mikulski. I haven't mentioned the race on the blog before because I haven't considered it possible that any Republican can beat her. She has never had a close election since she came to the Senate in 1986 so if this one is a real race in November than a true nightmare scenario will play out for the Democrats.
Ron Wyden is still about ten points ahead in his race in Oregon but he still hasn't reached 50%. He's still in a better than most Democrats this cycle but he shouldn't get too comfortable.
In West Virginia it looks like there will be a special election for the remaining two years of Bob Byrd's seat. If the governor jumps in then the Democrats should hold the seat. The real battle will be in 2012 (New York has the same scenario) when the they will have to have another election for a full term.