Tuesday, September 7, 2010

The generic ballot continues to amaze

Rasmussen is reporting that the generic ballot has the GOP ahead between 10-12 points. Gallup has reported similar results but they tend to have very wild fluctuations in their daily tracks. The Holy Trinity of political prognosticators (Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and Mike Barone) are all saying that the GOP will take the House in November and have a puncher's chance of pulling even in the Senate or even getting a majority.

Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray have fallen a bit behind in their respective races and Russ Feingold is in a statistical tie. If the GOP wins these three races (along with tossups in Illinois and Nevada) they would end up with 52 seats in the Senate. It looks like Connecticut, West Virginia and Oregon will be retained by the Democrats. Alaska and Florida could throw a monkey wrench in everyone's plans as nobody really knows which party Charlie Christ will caucus with if he wins in Florida and Lisa Murkowski is talking about running as a write-in candidate in Alaska. If she did that it would give the Democrats a strong shot at picking off a once safe GOP seat.

The House continues to deteriorate for the Democrats. There are at least six seats in Ohio that may flip-I suspect the GOP will now pick up at least five. If trends continue it is very likely that they will lose over sixty seats nationally.

There's still about eight weeks to go for the President and his party to turn the tide but the continuing negative economic data, the controversies over the Arizona immigration law and the building of the mosque in New York, along with a frightening deficit have pushed voters back to the GOP. If there was a third option many voters would go in that direction but in most cases they don't so the GOP will win many races because they are the only alternative

The Snitch

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