Monday, September 13, 2010

What to expect in tomorrow's primaries

Delaware has a very interesting GOP Senate primary tomorrow. Mike Castle has been around for years and wins all the time. If he succeeds tomorrow he'll win the November primary in a walk. That's also important because he'll be able to take his seat as soon as the Delaware Secretary of State certifies his election within days of his victory. He's only got one problem: Christine O'Donnell, a 40 year old conservative activist who may beat him tomorrow. Two weeks ago I would have said she didn't have much of a chance but in this environment she may prevail. If she does then the Democrats will be in position to win the seat as she is so conservative that she'll be unsuitable for most voters. Delaware hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994 and hasn't voted for a GOP President since 1988. It has gone from a slightly red state to a fairly blue one in twenty short years. That's why Castle is so important-he's a moderate and has been shown to win. His candidacy has kept Democrats from being able to field a major candidate for they knew it would just be a waste of time against such a formidable opponent. If he loses, they'll get a gift of a Senate seat ripe for the taking.

In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker is poised for a dramatic victory against businessman Mark Neumann. Walker should win by twenty-five or more points and is the odds-on favorite to beat Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett in November. Generally Milwaukee County gives 2/3 of its votes to Democrats in statewide races but Walker should be able to get a bunch of those votes and negate the Democratic advantage. After two terms of the unpopular Democrat Jim Doyle Wisconsinites seem to be ready to put a Republican back in the governor's mansion. Walker should win the general election 54-46 and will have the potential to bring the State Senate and perhaps the State Assembly to return to the GOP as well.

I'll be curious to see what happens in the GOP primary for the New York Senate seat. The incumbent, Kirsten Gillibrand, hasn't polled 50% yet and seems surprisingly weak in a state that has a 2-1 Democratic registration advantage. It is not out of the question that she could lose the general election and this is one race that people aren't paying that much attention to. Expect the polls to tighten in New York and the race in the Empire State to get pretty exciting. There are also five House seats that the GOP will contest and could win them all. They'll probably get at least two of them but I wouldn't be surprised if they flip them all.

The Snitch

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