Sunday, September 26, 2010

The latest from Ohio and Pennsylvania

It seems clear now that the GOP will pick up the open Pennsylvania Senate seat and will easily win the Governor's chair in Harrisburg. And unless there is a serious misstep, the Republicans will keep the Ohio Senate seat and will prevail against the sitting Democratic Governor.

It is in the House that the real bloodbath may take place. First, let's look at Ohio:
Democrats Driehaus (CD 1), Kilroy (CD 15), and Boccieri (CD 16) seem certain to lose. In Akron, Betty Sutton (CD 13) is slightly behind her GOP opponent in a slightly blue district. Charlie Wilson of Marietta (CD 6) is also trailing his Republican challenger. Long-time liberal Democrat Marcy Kaptur of Toledo (CD 10), Tim Ryan of Youngstown (CD 17) and Zach Space of Chillicothe (CD 18) are in tough races as well. Kaptur and Ryan should win simply because both districts are deep blue but Space is in a district that is fairly conservative (it gave John McCain an eight point victory in 2008) and will have a hard time retaining his seat. It is very possible that the Democrats will lose at least five seats in the state and the GOP may steal one or two more if the circumstances are just right. Of all the states in the Union, Ohio is perhaps the most crucial in terms of a national bellwether-whomever prevails in 2010 will tell us a lot about the electoral conditions in 2012.
Kathy Dahlkemper (CD 3) is an almost certain loser. The GOP will probably win the open seat that Joe Sestak is vacating in CD 7 and Patrick Murphy (CD 8) is looking at a crushing defeat in his slighly blue district just outside of Philadelphia. Paul Kanjorski, the long-time ethically challenged liberal from the Scraton area (CD 11) looks like he'll finally lose in his bid for a 14th term. Moderate Jason Altmire (CD 4) has about a 50/50 chance to retain his seat outside of Pittsburgh and Chris Carney (CD 10) is in the fight for his life in his rural, conservative, northeastern Pennsylvania district. Mark Critz (CD 12) and Tim Holden (CD 17) are also in competitive races but still have the upper hand in their campaigns. All is all, the Democrats will almost certainly lose at least four seats with a possiblity of eight flipping to the GOP. I'd bet they'll lose at least five on Election Night.

In just two states the GOP could flip enough seats to give them about a quarter of the number they'll need to take control of the House. Since 2006 Democrats have been winning in traditionally red districts but that will come to an abrupt end on Election Night. Many, if not most of those Congressmen will lose and several who represent slightly blue districts will also be defeated. As I've said before, I don't expect the GOP to have any less than 55 seats and, if the electoral weather is right, could pick up as many as 70. In 100 years there have never been three "wave" elections in a row but it looks like 2010 will be the GOP's answer to the massive Democratic success in 2006 and 2008.

The Snitch

No comments:

Post a Comment