Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Can Santorum come in 2nd in Iowa?

The short answer is yes. This is the most fluid GOP primary in modern times. Two weeks ago Newt Gingrich was in command but has rapidly fallen out of the first tier of contenders as negative attacks have decimated his campaign. Conservative voters, looking for an alternative other than Mitt Romney, really have only one option left: Rick Santorum. Granted, Santorum has very little organization outside of Iowa and seems like an impossibly long shot but he's in a better position than most think. He's visited every corner of the state and has forged strong bonds that will pay off on the night of the caucus. I think it very possible that Santorum will finish at least 3rd, if not 2nd. Romney and Paul's supporters are pretty much locked in and those two candidates aren't going to move very much-in fact Paul's support will probably go down as his nutty positions become better known throughout the electorate.

If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.

Respectfully,

The Snitch

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