With a little over three weeks to go until the Iowa caucus, the GOP race is still as fluid as ever. Even though Newt Gingrich seems to be ahead nationally he may have peaked a bit too early as the other Republican candidates continually attack him through the media, especially in Iowa. Either Gingrich or Romney will win in Iowa but Ron Paul may end up with a very surprising chunk of the vote (10-22%)and I do think Rick Santorum will end up with significantly more (5-12%) than our polling is showing. The other candidates will end up in single digits and will be totally knocked out after the New Hampshire primary.
It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.
I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.