While Newt Gingrich's win in SC was impressive (he won by even more than I thought-see last post) he's absolutely toxic in a general election. While Barack Obama's approval rating is too low historically for reelection he's in good shape if a Republican like Gingrich (approval rating 27%) gets the nomination. Moreover, he'll hurt GOP candidates nationwide in an environment in which Republicans should do remarkably well.
Romney, Gingrich and Santorum all have big weaknesses but Romney remains the most electable. In reality, the GOP really needs a better candidate so perhaps a Gingrich win is good in a way if the convention ends up split and can settle on someone else.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
Gingrich blowout brewing in South Carolina
The GOP race gets crazier and crazier with each passing day. The conventional wisdom is that there is no conventional wisdom. Just a few days ago we were all talking about the inevitability of a Mitt Romney victory in South Carolina and Florida. Today, after an outstanding debate performance by Newt Gingrich and continual miscues by Romney about his taxes have sent shock waves through the race.
Voters are obviously uncomfortable with Romney's evasive answers about how much he pays in taxes and where his money is. Even if he does have answers that are truthful they still sound like the fishy nuances we are used to from people like John Kerry. Moreover, Gingrich's home run on the very first question last night about how his second marriage ended drew rave reviews from the GOP rank and file in the Palmetto State and will translate into votes tomorrow.
Now that there are four candidates left many conservative voters will have to decide between Rick Santorum and Gingrich. If they begin to feel a Gingrich surge they'll vote for him (as everyone wants a winner). I think Newt will probably beat Mitt by 8 points or more with Paul and Santorum coming in 3rd and 4th respectively. If Santorum has a bad showing and drops out he'll probably endorse Newt. If that happens this primary season could go on for several weeks and may not get resolved until the convention. If Romney can still do well in South Carolina and win Florida he'll still have the inside track. But if he does not do as well as he should have in South Carolina and Florida is a close race (just a week ago it was a Romney blowout) he'll have a much harder time closing the deal.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Voters are obviously uncomfortable with Romney's evasive answers about how much he pays in taxes and where his money is. Even if he does have answers that are truthful they still sound like the fishy nuances we are used to from people like John Kerry. Moreover, Gingrich's home run on the very first question last night about how his second marriage ended drew rave reviews from the GOP rank and file in the Palmetto State and will translate into votes tomorrow.
Now that there are four candidates left many conservative voters will have to decide between Rick Santorum and Gingrich. If they begin to feel a Gingrich surge they'll vote for him (as everyone wants a winner). I think Newt will probably beat Mitt by 8 points or more with Paul and Santorum coming in 3rd and 4th respectively. If Santorum has a bad showing and drops out he'll probably endorse Newt. If that happens this primary season could go on for several weeks and may not get resolved until the convention. If Romney can still do well in South Carolina and win Florida he'll still have the inside track. But if he does not do as well as he should have in South Carolina and Florida is a close race (just a week ago it was a Romney blowout) he'll have a much harder time closing the deal.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Santorum the anti-Romney candidate?
Can Rick Santorum win the nomination? Yes, but he'll need help-specifically from Newt Gingrich. Mitt Romney needs as many conservatives to stay in the race through the Florida primary to split enough votes so he can win in the Sunshine State. Certainly Romney did well in Iowa and will win New Hampshire but it is very possible that he will lose in South Carolina and Florida to Rick Santorum.
Gingrich has already said he'll do whatever it takes to take Mitt Romney down. He sees Romney as a closet liberal and can't stand the idea that a conservative wouldn't be nominated by the GOP in a year in which the incumbent Democrat is so vulnerable. If Santorum can demonstrate some strength in New Hampshire I believe it is likely that most conservative GOP voters will turn to him as a reliable second choice instead of others they may favor.
Santorum's 99 county Iowa strategy really paid off. He camped out in the state for months forming strong relationships with the community and rose to the top when other conservatives fell by the wayside. And now, with so many GOP activists paying close attention (especially through the internet) they can quickly make a decision to vote for the former senator from Pennsylvania. Not only that, he'll be able to raise a few million dollars to make him competitive in South Carolina and Florida.
Romney should be very wary of Santorum. He's smart, able to answer any question and is absolutely unafraid to engage anybody. Romney won the Iowa caucus with 25% of the vote. That means that 75% of Republicans voted against him and most GOP voters around the country are still willing to change their minds and vote for a different candidate. That different candidate may indeed be Rick Santorum.
If Rick Santorum won the nomination and picked Marco Rubio that would be a formidable pair. A young, dynamic team from two swing states would be very tough to beat in the general election. Certainly Santorum has problems (and surely they will be revealed by the media if he's successful) but conservatives will probably put their fears aside in the hope of beating the President. Simply put, he fits what most GOP voters want; he's conservative and he's competitive and will put up a strong fight to win the nomination and the election.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Gingrich has already said he'll do whatever it takes to take Mitt Romney down. He sees Romney as a closet liberal and can't stand the idea that a conservative wouldn't be nominated by the GOP in a year in which the incumbent Democrat is so vulnerable. If Santorum can demonstrate some strength in New Hampshire I believe it is likely that most conservative GOP voters will turn to him as a reliable second choice instead of others they may favor.
Santorum's 99 county Iowa strategy really paid off. He camped out in the state for months forming strong relationships with the community and rose to the top when other conservatives fell by the wayside. And now, with so many GOP activists paying close attention (especially through the internet) they can quickly make a decision to vote for the former senator from Pennsylvania. Not only that, he'll be able to raise a few million dollars to make him competitive in South Carolina and Florida.
Romney should be very wary of Santorum. He's smart, able to answer any question and is absolutely unafraid to engage anybody. Romney won the Iowa caucus with 25% of the vote. That means that 75% of Republicans voted against him and most GOP voters around the country are still willing to change their minds and vote for a different candidate. That different candidate may indeed be Rick Santorum.
If Rick Santorum won the nomination and picked Marco Rubio that would be a formidable pair. A young, dynamic team from two swing states would be very tough to beat in the general election. Certainly Santorum has problems (and surely they will be revealed by the media if he's successful) but conservatives will probably put their fears aside in the hope of beating the President. Simply put, he fits what most GOP voters want; he's conservative and he's competitive and will put up a strong fight to win the nomination and the election.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Ben Nelson drops out
Once the most popular Democratic politician in Nebraska (he won reelection in 2006 by 26 points) Ben Nelson was probably headed for a huge loss next year no matter what GOP candidate would have emerged to face him. After being bribed to accept the President's health care plan in 2009, Nelson had a hard time even appearing in public in his home state to even eat dinner (he got booed out of at least one restaurant). It is a remarkable fall for someone once considered a "moderate" Democrat. The last three years have been hard on those Democrats who have tried to portray themselves as moderates or even conseratives. When George Bush was in office they could take positions that would shield them from too much controversy but once President Obama took office their true colors were exposed as Harry Reid in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House demanded, begged, bribed and pleaded for their support. In the end, it will cost the most of the moderate and conservative Democrats who are still in the two chambers their jobs. In the end, Ben Nelson's departure might help the Democrats nationally. While that may see contradictory, it is true. Had Nelson run, the DNC would have been forced to spend a lot of money defending his seat and still probably lose. Now they can simply write it off and spend their cash elsewhere.
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Sincerely,
The Snitch
Can Bobby Jindal be drafted?
If Rick Perry drops out (which I predict he will do immediately after Iowa) than Governor Jindal might consider it. He's a big Perry supporter so he's have to wait until Perry steps aside. Jindal would be a dream shot for most conservatives and they would flock to him. He would have to accept quickly to try to get on the ballot in several states to fight off Mitt Romney. Jindal has gotten some intense pressure lately to come in. A Jindal/Rubio ticket would be virtually unbeatable. We'll see.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Can Santorum come in 2nd in Iowa?
The short answer is yes. This is the most fluid GOP primary in modern times. Two weeks ago Newt Gingrich was in command but has rapidly fallen out of the first tier of contenders as negative attacks have decimated his campaign. Conservative voters, looking for an alternative other than Mitt Romney, really have only one option left: Rick Santorum. Granted, Santorum has very little organization outside of Iowa and seems like an impossibly long shot but he's in a better position than most think. He's visited every corner of the state and has forged strong bonds that will pay off on the night of the caucus. I think it very possible that Santorum will finish at least 3rd, if not 2nd. Romney and Paul's supporters are pretty much locked in and those two candidates aren't going to move very much-in fact Paul's support will probably go down as his nutty positions become better known throughout the electorate.
If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
If Santorum does make a splash in Iowa can he sustain his momentum. He's invested almost everything he has in the state and knows if he finishes in 4th place or lower he's done. If he does finish 3rd or 2nd his best hope is that the other conservatives who finish behind him quickly drop out and endorse him as a counter to the more liberal Mitt Romney. He'll probably get crushed in New Hampshire but he'll hope to be competitive in much more conservative South Carolina. If he can pull that off he'll have a chance to prevail in later primaries and make it a two-man race between himself and Romney. Santorum has a decent conservative record and most GOP voters would vote for him if they had to choose between him and Mitt Romney. We'll just have to see what happens in the next five days.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Gingrich in Command?
With a little over three weeks to go until the Iowa caucus, the GOP race is still as fluid as ever. Even though Newt Gingrich seems to be ahead nationally he may have peaked a bit too early as the other Republican candidates continually attack him through the media, especially in Iowa. Either Gingrich or Romney will win in Iowa but Ron Paul may end up with a very surprising chunk of the vote (10-22%)and I do think Rick Santorum will end up with significantly more (5-12%) than our polling is showing. The other candidates will end up in single digits and will be totally knocked out after the New Hampshire primary.
It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.
I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
It is simply very difficult to know who will win for three reasons: One, the caucus is three weeks away which is a geological ice age in politics. Two, over 60% of the GOP electorate have indicated that they may still change their minds in the coming days. Three, people can change their minds the night of the caucus as voters discuss in various groups whom they will vote for and then finally make their decision.
I still see Gingrich coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the strongest candidate. He's more conservative than Mitt Romney which will appeal to the rank and file of the GOP caucus. Moreover, as other GOP candidates drop out I suspect they will endorse Gingrich as the most conservative and still electable candidate left.
Respectfully,
The Snitch
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