Tuesday, November 30, 2010

15 House Democrats in trouble in 2012

2010 was the third "wave" election in a row and there's no reason to believe that 2012 will be any different. As the economy continues to stumble along and the electorate is still in a foul mood there are many incumbents that are in deep trouble. Here's 15 House Democrats that (depending on redistricting) could lose in 2012.

-AZ 8 (Giffords)
The GOP made a hard run at the two-term liberal but came up just short. Giffords received about 49% of the vote and it will be interesting what will happen in the redistricting process. Arizona uses a five-member commission to draw districts so we simply don't know how her district will look. Arizona will get two more congressional seats so there will be ten districts which will probably look very different what they have now.

-GA 12 (Barrow)
John Barrow won 57% of the vote but had much closer races in 2004 and 2006. If the GOP can (they control the redistricting process) can pack more Republican voters in his district it will look very different than it does now. Georgia will gain one seat so it will be interesting to see how the map looks when the state legislaure redraws the districts. In any case the GOP will almost certainly make the new district a red one and will be tempted to pack the three remaining Democratic congressmen into deep blue ones.

-IA 3 (Boswell)
Leonard Boswell trailed for most of the year but pulled off a minor miracle by winning with 51% of the vote on election night. Iowa is losing a seat and an independent commission draws the lines for the state. Currently there are 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans two incumbents are going to have to run against one another to survive in 2012.

-IN 2 (Donnelly)
Had the Libertarian not run in this race (he received 5% of the vote) Joe Donnelly would have lost on a night when the GOP clobbered the Democrats in the Hoosier State. In 2008 he won with 67% of the vote but in 2010 he squeaked by with just 48%. The GOP controls the redisticting process in the state and I'm sure they'll make this seat more red when they are done.

-KY 6 (Chandler)
Like Donnelly, Ben Chandler won 67% of the vote in 2008 but had a very close election; only winning by around 600 votes. The redistricting process is split so we'll have to wait and see if his district gets more red or blue to judge how much trouble he'll be in in 2012.

I'll get to the following folks in the next couple of days.

-MI 9 (Peters)
-MN 1 (Walz)
-NC 7 (McIntyre)
-NC 8 (Kissell)
-NY 23 (Owens)
-PA 4 (Altmire)
-PA 17 (Holden)
-UT 2 (Matheson)
-VA 11 (Connolly)
-WI 3 (Kind)


The Snitch

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