Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Seats that I got right and wrong

It looks like I'll come close to my call of 66 in the House but I got a number of them wrong. Here's a list:

Dems that won that I didn't call:
AZ 8-Still to close to call but it looks like the Democrat Giffords will win.
CA 47-Linda Chavez survived in Orange County.
CO 7-Ryan Frazier got beat handily in this purple district.
CN 4 and 5-4 is still to close to call but it looks like the Dems will retain both.
MA 10-The Dems did a good job defending their seats in the Bay State.
MI 9-Still to close to call but it looks like Gary Peters will retain his seat.
NM 1-The incumbent Democrat squeaked out a victory.
NY 23-I was really surprised to see Congressman Owens survive in this red district.
NC 7 and 8-I really blew it on these two calls. The Democratic incumbents won easily.
OR 5-Again a surprise that the first-tem incumbent Democrat won the election.
HI 1-Charles Djou got beat by about six points in this slightly blue district.

Republicans that won that I didn't call:
ID 1-The conservative Democrat Walt Minnick went down in a GOP landslide.
IL 10-In what was supposed to be a Democratic win, the GOP held on to Mark Kirk's old seat.
NH 2-Chalie Bass, defeated in 2006, won his old seat back.
NY 13-Brian McMahon got beat on Staten Island.
NY 24-In a shock, Mike Arcuri got beat upstate.
OH 18-I was really surpised to see the conservative Democrat Zach Space lose.
VA 9-Long term Democrat incumbent Rick Boucher lost. His vote on Cap and Trade killed him in this rural coal mining district.
WV 1-In a bit of surprise, the GOP picked up Alan Mollohan's old seat. That gives the Republicans two out of three seats in West Virginia-the first time in a long time that's happened.

Right now that means I'm off by my projection by five seats but there are a few out there that haven't been called:

CA 11-This race is only a few dozen votes apart. We won't know the winner of this race until December.
CA 20-Again a close race where no winner has been declared.
IL 8-Incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean is about 800 votes behind. I think she'll lose this race.
KY 6-Democrat Ben Chandler is still ahead by a few hundred votes. I bet he survives.
TX 27-Democrat Solomon Ortiz is about 800 votes behind in a bit of a surprise. I think he'll lose this race.
VA 11-This race is only a few hundred votes apart and probably won't be decided for three weeks.
WA 2-It will probably be a few days before we know who won this race.

In the Senate the real shock is Nevada where Harry Reid survived. It looks like in the last couple of days several of the close races tightened further. Pennsylvania and Illinois were closer than I thought they'd be and Colorado and Washington State are still too close to call and we won't know who won those until Thanksgiving. As much as the Tea Party helped to lose races in Nevada and Delaware by electing bad candidates in their states' primaries, they got it right in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

One of the emerging stories of this election is the complete wipeout of Democrats in many state legislatures. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, the GOP won both houses after taking some brutal loses in the last two election cycles. This is particularly surprising in Minnesota as the Democrats had a huge advantange in both chambers before last night.


The Snitch

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