Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Down to Six States Now

It looks as if Romney is fairly secure in Florida and Virginia.  Certainly Obama could sneak a win in one or both of those states, and, if he did, he'd probably win.  Unless something drastic changes, however, I believe they are probably out of reach for the President.

On the other side, Michigan almost certainly seems out for Romney and probably Pennsylvania as well although if he could sneak a win in the Keystone State he'd cinch the election.  They don't have much early voting like many other states so a late push by Romney would make sense if he felt the numbers were right.  Paul Ryan visited Pittsburgh last weekend to a raucus reception.  We'll have to wait and see for about another four days if Romney's team will spend the time and resources there.

The current Electoral College Count is Romney 248, Obama 237 with Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Iowa  
(6), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) left to be decided.  Of all these states, Colorado will almost certainly fall into Romney's lap but I'm not ready to give it to him.  If Ohio falls with Colorado he'll win the election.  If the contest ended today I would say that Romney would win Ohio, Colorado and Iowa for a total of 285 EVs, 15 more than he'd need.  If he runs the table and sneaks Pennsylvania he'll get 321 but that's about his maximum ceiling right now.

Romney is certainly is good shape but two weeks is a very long time in politics.  We'll see if his surge, especially with political independents, will be enough to stop Obama's ground game, especially in Ohio.


The Snitch

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