Sunday, October 28, 2012

It is all about Independents now

Mitt Romney will win political independents by at least eight points (and probably a lot more) nationally but we simply don't know how much he'll capture that all important group.  It is clear that the late breaking undecided voters are clearly disillusioned with the President and are drifting slowly toward the GOP in the late stages.  This explains Democratic numbers collapsing in safe states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota and the GOP drawing even in Ohio and Wisconsin.  If Romney ends up winning indies by more than ten points he's going to end up winning nationally by five points so you'll see an Electoral College victory for the Republican of somewhere above 300 Electoral Votes.  If he does end up taking Pennsylvania he could max out at 321.  If somehow he takes Maine's 2nd Congressional District (that state parcels out its electors by district) and Minnesota that would bring it up to 332-something not seen for the GOP since 1988 when G.H.W. Bush got over 400 Electoral Votes in an eight point win over Michael Dukakis.


The Snitch

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