In the latest tracks in Florida the President can't seem to crack 47%. With latebreakers almost always voting in large numbers for the challenger I believe Mitt Romney will win the Sunshine State by at least five and as many as eight points. In 2004 George Bush won by 5% and I believe Romney will win by a bigger margin. It remains to be seen if Connie Mack, the Republican Senate candidate, can use that kind of momentum to beat the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson.
Looking at the early returns in places like Hillsborough County (near Tampa) will give us a great idea of what will happen on election night. Bush won it in 2004 and Obama flipped it in 2008. If Romney gets a big win there early we can expect a good night for the former Massachusetts governor.