Removed from list:
Alabama CD 2 (Open)
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Florida CD 2 (Boyd)-Congressman Boyd, who has never had a close election since his first in 1996, is facing a very tough test from the GOP candidate, Steve Southerland. Boyd has tried to portray himself as a moderate “Blue Dog” but decided in the last few days of the health care debate to vote in favor. Currently he’s down by double digits to Southerland.
Texas CD 17 (Edwards)-Chet Edwards represents a very red district. The Texas GOP is working hard to try to defeat him and may well succeed. In 2004 Edwards squeaked by with 51% of the vote and it will be hard to raise money and get Democrats in Independents, and Republicans to vote. Honest and well-respected my most in his district he’ll have to fight hard to win another term in Congress. I’ve moved this up to the Toss Up category. Local polls have Chet down around ten points.
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)-Altmire was elected in the Democratic year of 2006 but could find himself out of a job this year as he struggles to hold on to a seat outside Pittsburgh. He did vote against the health bill but anti-incumbency is strong in rural Pennsylvania and he will be playing defense all year.
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)-Joe Sestak has left his seat to give Arlen Specter a run for his life in the Democratic Senate primary. Sestak flipped this seat from the GOP in 2006 after leaving the US Navy and the GOP believes that this suburban Philadelphia district is ripe for the plucking.
Pennsylvania CD 11 (Kanjorski)-Paul Kanjorski is a long-term survivor in this slightly Democratic district. He had one of his closest races in 2008 winning by only four points and the GOP has targeted him again this cycle. Attacked as being an insider and a tremendous earmarker, it would not be a big surprise to see this seat flip to the GOP. Since last week I’ve moved this race up to the Toss Up category.