Monday, May 10, 2010

Democratic Congressman in Great Distress: They could easily lose this November

Alabama CD 2 (Open)
Arkansas CD 2 (Open)
Colorado CD 3 (Salazar)
Georgia CD 12 (Barrow)-Barrow faces a fight from the Left and the Right in his district. He’ll almost certainly emerge from the primary as the Democratic nominee but he’ll have to face an invigorated GOP opponent. He faced tough opponents in 2004 and 2006 and barely scraped by both times. He’ll be hard pressed to repeat the performance.
Idaho CD 1 (Minnick)-This is a strong GOP district and it was nearly a miracle that Walt Minnick was elected in the first place. Voting against the health plan was a plus but he’ll face a tough GOP opponent in the fall.
Illinois CD 8 (Bean)-Melissa Bean beat a GOP powerhouse Congressman named Phil Crane in 2004 and has served this district ever since. Once deep red, it has become quite the purple district as a lot of Democrats have fled the city of Chicago and have moved in. Bean is vulnerable this year as she did vote for the health care package and will face a tough opponent in a year where the GOP candidates for governor and senator in Illinois will probably lead the winning ticket.
Illinois CD 11 (Halvorson)
Illinois CD 12 (Costello)
Illinois CD 17 (Hare)-For once Phil Hare will be vulnerable. He made a complete fool of himself in a town hall meeting as he didn’t know the difference between the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution while he was vainly trying to debate a constituent about the health care bill. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he loses in the fall.
Indiana CD 2 (Donnelly)
Iowa CD 1 (Braley)
Iowa CD 2 (Loebsack)
Iowa CD 3 (Boswell)-Leonard Boswell is in deep trouble this year. In a purple district he’s facing a stiff GOP challenge. While respected by most Iowans for his honesty and integrity, the anti-Obama wave could easily overcome him in the Hawkeye State.
Kentucky CD 3 (Yarmuth)
Maryland CD 1 (Kratovil)-The is a strong GOP district and Frank Kratovil squeaked by in 2008 because the incumbent GOP congressman, Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the primary and ended up endorsing the Democrat. That, combined with a strong Democratic turnout put Kratovil over the top by abour 3,000 votes. He did vote against the health care package but he’s in deep trouble.
Massachusetts CD 10 (Open)-Bill Delahunt decided to retire than face the distinct possibility of a loss. This is by far the best chance for the GOP to pick up their first House seat in Massachusetts in years. Scott Brown did very well in MA10 and the GOP is putting up a solid candidate. I would bet that this seat will switch in November.
New Hampshire CD 1 (Shea-Porter)-One of the weaker incumbents in this year’s election, Carol Shea Porter is in deep trouble in New Hampshire. Surprising nearly everyone in 2006 Shea-Porter won on a deep mood of anti-George Bush sentiment in the Granite State. New Hampshire had been reliably red for many years but has turned blue lately. However, Shea-Porter’s luck may be running out as the former GOP opponent, Jeb Bradley is running again and is ahead of her in the polls. She was recently heckled at a town hall meeting for suggesting that the new health care bill will actually bring down the federal deficit. Clearly she’ll be playing defense all summer and fall.
New Hampshire CD 2 (Open)-Paul Hodes has decided to run for the Senate and Charlie Bass, the GOP incumbent he beat in 2006 is leading in the polls. This district leans slightly Democratic but it will be tough to beat Bass this year.
New Jersey CD 3 (Adler)-John Adler is in the fight for his life against a colorful GOP opponent, former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan. This district is slightly Republican and Adler is only in his first term; it won’t be surprising if he doesn’t get his second.
New Jersey CD 12 (Holt)
New York CD 2 (Israel)
New York CD 13 (McMahon)
New York CD 19 (Hall)
New York CD 24 (Arcuri)
New York CD 25 (Maffei)
New York CD 27 (Higgins)
North Carolina CD 2 (Etheridge)
North Carolina CD 7 (McIntyre)
North Carolina CD 8 (Kissel)
North Carolina CD (Shuler)
North Dakota At Large (Pomeroy)-A titan in North Dakota politics Earl Pomeroy is in the fight of his life. His opponent, GOP state legislator Rick Berg is running ahead of him in most polls. The Plains states have seen the most resistance to the health care bill and Pomeroy is being held accountable. Senator Dorgan already saw the writing on the wall and retired instead of losing and Pomeroy may be next.
Ohio CD 6 (Wilson)
Ohio CD 17 (Ryan)
Ohio CD 18 (Space)
Oregon CD 5 (Schrader)
Pennsylvania CD 4 (Altmire)
Pennsylvania CD 7 (Open)
Pennsylvania CD 8 (Murphy)
Pennsylvania CD 10 (Carney)
Pennsylvania CD 17 (Holden)
South Dakota At Large (Herseth-Sandlin)-While she voted against the health care bill Congresswoman Sandlin is in the political fight for her life. While slightly ahead in most polls she is not reaching 50% and the South Dakota GOP is well organized and is aiming to unseat her.
Tennessee CD 4 (Davis)
Tennessee CD 8 (Open)
Virginia CD 2 (Nye)-Glenn Nye unseated a GOP congresswoman in 2008 riding the wave of a strong Obama GOTV operation. This district leans Republican, especially among the strong military presence in the area. This district voted overwhelmingly in the 2009 Virginia governor’s race and Nye knows he facing a tough reelection race.
Virginia CD 9 (Boucher)-Rick Boucher hasn’t had a close election since 1984 but he’s in trouble this year. Like CD 2, this district voted heavily for the GOP in the 2009 governor’s election the average voter in this district is in a foul mood. Afraid of the administration’s climate change bill, Rick Boucher may fall victim to the anti-incumbent sentiment that has swept the coal mining areas of Appalachia.
Virginia CD 11 (Connolly)-Gerald Connolly flipped a GOP district in 2008 but is running behind in polls this year. Again, most of Virginia has turned redder and CD11 is no different. It would not be surprising if Connolly doesn’t win a second term.
Washington CD 3 (Open)-Brian Baird has decided to retire and the GOP has a chance to win this perfectly purple district.
Wisconsin CD 3 (Kind)-Ron Kind will face a very tough opponent this year as State Senator Dan Kapanke from LaCrosse. Kind has cruised through his last few elections and has been able to stay below the radar for years but now he’ll face the test of his life.
Wisconsin CD 7 (Open)-Facing his first seriously contested election since 1994, David Obey decided to retire than take a chance on losing to Sean Duffy, the Republican District Attorney from Ashland County.

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