Monday, May 17, 2010

Strange Things Can Happen: Democrats that could lose if the wave is big enough. (updates)

More info:
Florida CD 22 (Klein)-Ron Klein is set for a rematch against his 2008 opponent, Allen West. Both have plenty of money in what should be a bloodbath in Florida 22. Klein won by ten points last time so West will need a good GOP turnout if he has a shot at winning the seat.

Georgia CD 8 (Marshall)-In 2002 and 2006 Jim Marshall received 51% of the vote in this quite red district. He’ll face a vigorous GOP opponent this year in what should be the supreme test of his political life.

Illinois CD 3 (Lipinski)-It would take a lot to beat Bill Lipinski but if the wave is big enough it can wash over even a guy who seems to have few enemies on either side of the aisle and doesn’t stir much opposition from the GOP.

Indiana CD 1 (Visclosky)-Pete Visclosky’s closest race since coming into the House 13 terms ago was in 1994 when he received 56% of the vote. He usually tops the 70% range but this is a Republican year in Indiana and the state GOP is ready to fight to flip for Democratic seats in the state.

Minnesota CD 1 (Walz)-His opponent has no money but this is a district won by the GOP in the landslide of 1994 and taken by the Democrats in 2006. Will this seat turn again?

Missouri CD 4 (Skelton)-The Democratic Campaign Committee has warned Ike Skelton to start more aggressively campaigning or he could face the possibility of losing his bid for and 18th term. The venerable Chairman of the Armed Services Committee represents a deep red district in rural western Missouri, a hotbed of anti-incumbency and Tea Party activism. The Missouri GOP believes they can beat him and if a guy like Skelton is actually vulnerable there will be few safe Democrats.

Ohio CD 13 (Sutton)-Betty Sutton should win in her Democratic majority district but a multi-millionaire car dealer named Tom Ganley will battle for every vote. If they anti-incumbent wave is big enough she could be sent back to Ohio in 2011.

Utah CD 2 (Matheson)-He’ll probably make It through the cycle as this district is by far the most Democratic of the three in Utah but all incumbents in the Beehive State need to heed the danger ahead after three term GOP Senator Bob Bennett just got thrown out on his ear at the Republican state caucus. What people must remember is that the caucus was chocked full of new voters. Had the traditional voters been there Bennett would have probably been reelected but with the anti-incumbent mood the way it is anything is possible.

West Virginia CD 1 (Open)-The West Virginia GOP has long thought Mollohan vulnerable to a strong challenge and he’ll get it this year. He’s had numerous ethics complaints in the last few years and will have to defend his 14 terms in the House. Not an easy task this election cycle. Update: Alan Mollohan has been defeated in the WV primary by State Senator Mike Oliverio. We’ll have to wait for new polling info to see how the race between Oliverio and Republican David McKinley shakes out.

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