Monday, May 17, 2010

Those Certain to Lose: Seats that will turn from Dem to Rep (updates)

Removed from list:
Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)

Alabama CD 2 (Open)-The Democratic incumbent, Bobby Bright, is running for governor in a deep red district. Bright won the district by less than 2,000 votes in 2008 and it is a safe bet that the GOP will reclaim it.

Mississippi CD1 (Childers)-Travis Childers represents a deep red district in northern Mississippi. He is currently serving his first full term after winning a special election in May 1988. The GOP is aggressively pursuing this seat as one of the most vulnerable of the cycle.

More info:
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip. Tom Reed is favored to pick this seat off for the GOP but Governor Patterson has refused to call a special election and probably will let the district be without representation until January 2011.

Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)-This is a fairly purple district but Congressman Driehaus will have a hard time being reelected as he decided at the last minute to vote for the health bill. He expressed great concern over how much it cost but suddenly was converted to the idea that it would basically be revenue-neutral. It’s an even bet he’ll only serve one term in the House.

Tennessee CD 6 (Open)-Bart Gordon is a “Blue Dog” Democrat who has decided to call it quits in this conservative district that is just east of Nashville. The GOP feels this seat will easily turn over in November.

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