Monday, May 10, 2010

Those Certain to Lose: Seats that will turn from Dem to Rep

Arizona CD 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona CD 5 (Mitchell)
Arizona CD 8 (Giffords)
Arkansas CD 1 (Open)-The anti-incumbency mood in Arkansas is especially heavy. In a normal year there wouldn’t be much difficulty for the Democrats to hold this seat.
Colorado CD 4 (Markey)-Colorado is full of independents. The strong Democratic surge in 2006 and 2008 in Colorado will now show a strong GOP surge as independents swing heavily into the Republican column.
Florida CD 8 (Grayson) It is almost if this man doesn’t want to be reelected-it’s tough enough in a GOP leaning district in this climate but he continually makes outrageous statements.
Florida CD 24 (Kosmas)-Voting for the health care bill will seal her fate. With the elimination of the Administration of future NASA plans Representative Kosmas will only serve one term.
Illinois CD 14 (Foster)-The old seat of former Speaker Denny Hastert this district is nominally Republican and should revert to the GOP.
Indiana CD 8 (Open)-A conservative district being vacated by Brad Ellsworth (who is running for the Senate) the anti-incumbency mood is strong; especially as Ellsworth voted for the health care bill after promising that he wouldn’t.
Indiana CD 9 (Hill)-This district is usually very close and Baron Hill should have been ousted by his old nemesis Mike Sodrel, who held the seat previously. However, in the ultimate anti-incumbent year, Sodrel finished third in the GOP primary and Todd Young will be the new face of the 9th District.
Kansas CD 3 (Open)-Normally the area around University of Kansas gave the former incumbent a strong advantage, especially in 2006 and 2008 will not materialize this year. Fearing almost certain defeat, Dennis Moore (who admitted he didn’t read the health bill before voting for it) decided to call it quits.
Louisiana CD 3 (Open)-The incumbent is running for the Senate and this is a heavy GOP area-this is a seat certain to flip.
Michigan CD 7 (Schauer)-A surprise victor in the 2008 election, Mark Schauer will not get a second term.
Michigan CD 9 (Peters)-The strong anti-Democrat mood should be enough to boot the first term representative out of office.
Nevada CD 3 (Titus)-The Democrats are preparing for a drubbing in Nevada. Harry Reid, perhaps the most unpopular incumbent running in the Senate is ten points behind. Ironically, his son is running for governor as well. Dina Titus decided to vote for the health care bill after she said her district supported it which was clearly untrue.
New York CD 20 (Murphy)
New York CD 23 (Owens)
New York CD 29 (Open)-This is a GOP leaning district and Eric Massa has resigned in disgrace. He won by only 5,000 votes in 2008 when Democratic turnout was heavy. This seat will certainly flip.
Ohio CD 1 (Driehaus)
Ohio CD 15 (Kilroy)
Ohio CD 16 (Boccieri)
Pennsylvania CD 3 (Dahlkemper)
Tennessee CD 6 (Open)
Virginia CD 5 (Perriello)-A GOP district, Tom Perriello squeaked by his GOP opponent by less than 800 votes. The Obama turnout machine in Virginia was particularly effective and lifted Perriello across the finish line. It won’t happen this year.
Wisconsin CD 8 (Kagan). This is a GOP leaning district that has will be a prime target in 2010. There are several credible challengers that are vying for the Republican nomination and will almost certainly be elected. Kagan won in 2006 with 51% of the vote in 2006 and 54% in 2008.

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