Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Big GOP wins in the Badger State

Wisconsin has been trending Democratic in the last few election cycles. Once fairly purple, the state has gone blue lately. Currently, five of the eight House members, both Senators, the Governor are Democrats. By 2008, both chambers were controlled by the Democrats as well. George Bush lost narrowly in 2000 (about 5,000 votes) and came close in 2004 (about 12,000). In 2008, Republicans statewide were hammered and John McCain got beat by thirteen points. The Badger State hasn't voted for a Republican president since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Accordingly, it was no surprise that many people thought three-term Democratic Senator Russ Feingold would be nearly impossible to beat. Somehow through eighteen years of service this arch-liberal has promoted and shaped an image that he's some kind of maverick politician who isn't swayed by special interests. That, along with a big war chest suggested to most that he would win his fourth term. However, in this anti-Washington, anti-establishment year he's about to be beaten by businessman Ron Johnson of Oshkosh. A neophyte politician, Johnson decided to run after the popular former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson decided to pass on the race. He's run a solid campaign and should be the first Republican to win a Senate race in the state since Bob Kasten squeaked through with a win in 1986. The final percentage should be: 53.5% to 46.5%. I think Scott Walker, the GOP candidate for Governor should get about the same percentage in his race to replace the Democrat Jim Doyle. The GOP will also pick up House seats in districts 7 (Wausau) and 8 (Green Bay) giving the Republicans a 5-3 edge in the delegation. Moreover, I expect both houses of the state legislature to flip back to the Republicans. This doesn't mean the state will stay red; far from it. However, if economic conditions don't improve this state will be in play for the GOP in the 2012 Presidential elections and will once again be as contested as it was in 2000 and 2004.


The Snitch

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