Saturday, October 23, 2010

More Old Bulls in trouble

Gene Taylor, probably the most conservative Democrat in the House of Representatives, is running about even with his GOP opponent in the race for his souhern Mississippi district. In the House for 21 years, Taylor has easily won all of his elections. The problem is his district is very deeply red and his challenger can point to the fact that Taylor voted for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. He may not have voted with the Democratic caucus much but he did vote for the speaker and that is absolutely toxic this year.

I wouldn't have thought Lincoln Davis of Tennessee would have much trouble this year but he could easily get beaten in his district that runs north and south in the eastern part of the state. Traditionally very Republican since the Civil War, the voters of this district has sent Davis to Washington four times. However, the mood in the Volunteer State is vile and I suspect strongly that Tennessee will have a repeat of the 1994 election where the Democrats were all but wiped out.

Ike Skelton of Missouri is in very deep trouble in his rural west-central district. Elected in 1976, the Chairman of the Armed Services Committee could get swept under if the Republican tide is big enough. My gut says that his election will be decided by less than 1%.

I'm sticking to my prediction that the GOP will gain 64 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate. Next week I'll go seat by seat to project who will prevail November 2.


The Snitch

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