Monday, October 18, 2010

Small movements in the main Senate races

The top five Senate races for the GOP still look very strong:

42)North Dakota
45)Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey's numbers are getting even better and should win the race by ten points.
46)Wisconsin-Unless Ron Johnson steals a car in the next two weeks he should win by about seven points.

And there are three races where the GOP is still ahead marginally:

47)West Virginia-It looks like John Raese has survived an onslaught of TV ads and a campaign visit from Democratic star Bill Clinton and should be in good shape to get over the finish line. Joe Manchin still has a strong shot to pull it out but he'll have to overcome a huge anti-Administration vote.
48)Nevada-Sharonn Angle has pulled a bit ahead after Harry Reid's disastrous debate last week. It is still very close but if things stay the same I think she wins by a little over two points.
49)Colorado-Ken Buck has lost a bit of his lead but is still ahead. With the numbers of political Independents in the state he still has a built in advantage.
50)Washington-Dino Rossi's people say they are ahead and the polls have had both candidates with small leads. We probably won't know the outcome of this race until early Wednesday, November 3.
51)Illinois-This is as close a race as there is in the country.
52)California-Barbara Boxer is still marginally ahead and is in a good position to win considering the great Democratic registration edge.

It won't be hard for the GOP to get to 48 seats but to get to 51 they'll have to run the table. That's not out of the question but it will be hard to do.
However, the races in the House of Representatives continues to deteriorate for Democrats. At the low end the GOP should pick up 55 of the 105 seriously contested seats. The Republicans should lose at least two and as many as four but all of the rest will be Democratic losses. 70 seats isn't out of the question but we'll know more next week as we get final polls. Many races like PA CD 17 just don't have much data so there isn't a good way to predict the outcome. In the next few days the data will come fast and furious and we'll be able to make some accurate predictions.


The Snitch

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