Wednesday, October 27, 2010

I'm calling Mark Kirk the winner in Illinois

Mark Kirk has pulled a bit ahead in the race to fill the open Senate seat in Illinois. Most polls have him up about four percentage points over Alexi Giannoulias and that should be enough to put him over the top. There is a Green Party candidate on the ballot and that should siphon between one to three percent away from Giannoulias and that will cost him the election. The final result should be something like: Kirk 48.4%, Giannoulias 46.2%. This gives the GOP 48 seats (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada) with four to be decided (Colorado, West Virginia, California and Washington). Ken Buck looks like he's slightly ahead in Colorado and the GOP should prevail there but its a much harder climb after that. Democrats lead in West Virginia, Washington and California. West Virginia and Washington are still in the margin of error but Barbara Boxer is about five points ahead in the Golden State. Ultimately, 49 seats looks fairly reasonable for the GOP but anything above that will be hard to get.


The Snitch

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