Thursday, October 21, 2010

Early votes solid for GOP

Early voting has started in many states and the early returns (also from collected absentee votes) have been very good for the GOP. Especially in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada we've seen significant Republican turnout when compared with 2006 and 2008. Many are estimating that at least one quarter of the total votes will be cast by Election Day so we'll have a very accurate picture of who will be in a solid position to win. In 2008 in Florida John McCain got about as many votes on Election Day as Barack Obama but the Democrat had such a large lead from early votes that he easily carried the Sunshine State.

To me Nevada is looking better and better for Sharron Angle. The GOP has narrowed the Democratic voter registration advantage from 100,000 to 60,000. While that's still significant it is clear that Republicans are coming out in better numbers than Democrats. That, combined with Angle winning among Independents puts her in good shape.

Even though a couple of polls this week have shown the Senate race in Pennsylvania getting closer I think Pat Toomey should still win by a comfortable margin. Again early voting has been strong for the GOP and they are aiming to contest at least seven House seats. In the end I think they should get four or five in the Keystone State.

Ohio continues to be a nightmare for Democrats. Unless there is a major change in the next few days there will be losses up and down the ballot.

I've already predicted that in Iowa Leonard Boswell will lose but it looks as if CDs 1 and 2 are in a bit of trouble as well. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Bruce Braley (CD 1) gets sent home November 2.

I'm predicting that the Republicans will now pick up four seats in Florida. Along with Boyd (CD 2), Grayson (CD 8), and the hapless Suzanne Kosmas (CD 24) I believe Ron Klein (CD 22) will lose to Allen West.

In Arizona I'm now predicting that the Republicans will take CDs 1, 5 and 8. Some pundits are saying that CD 7 (Grijaiva) is vulnerable (and I do think he's a bit scared) but it will take a lot of heavy lifting for his GOP opponent to flip this blue seat.

Are old bulls like Peter DeFazio (Oregon CD 4) and Dennis Kucinich (Ohio CD 10) really all that vulnerable? DeFazio hasn't had a serious election since he first won in 1986 but his district is very light blue and he's got a quality opponent. Kucinich. one of the goofiest members of Congress represents a deeply blue district but he's got a very good GOP challenger and northern Ohio is in the grip of a deep recession. These two, along with old bulls like Jim Oberstar and Barney Frank are fighting for their political lives. It wouldn't shock me if one lost (most likely Oberstar) but if two or more lose it will be a part of a political tsunami that we haven't seen in decades.


The Snitch

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