House races-who is in trouble

Here's a list of the 49 Democrats that I think will almost certainly lose in November.

-AL 2 Bright
-AZ 1 Kirkpatrick
-AR 1 Open
-AR 2 Open
-CA 11 McNerney
-CO 4 Markey
-FL 2 Boyd
-FL 8 Grayson
-FL 24 Kosmas
-IL 11 Halvorson
-IL 14 Foster
-IL 17 Hare
-IN 8 Open
-IN 9 Hill
-IA 3 Boswell
-KS 3 Open
-LA 3 Open
-MA 10 Open
-MI 7 Schauer
-MI 9 Peters
-MS 1 Childers
-NV 3 Titus
-NH 1 Shea-Porter
-NH 2 Open
-NM 2 Teague
-NY 1 Bishop
-NY 19 Hall
-NY 23 Owens
-NY 29 Open
-NC 2 Etheridge
-NC 7 McIntyre
-NC 8 Kissell
-ND AL Pomeroy
-OH 1 Driehaus
-OH 15 Kilroy
-OH 16 Boccieri
-PA 3 Dahlkemper
-PA 7 Open
-PA 8 Murphy
-PA 11 Kanjorski
-TN 6 Open
-TN 8 Open
-TX 17 Edwards
-VA 2 Nye
-VA 5 Perriello
-VA 11 Connolly
-WA 3 Open
-WI 7 Open
-WI 8 Kagan

If you subtract the four vulnerable seats of the GOP (DE At Large, HI 1, IL 10 and LA 2) I believe the minimum number of Republican pickups should be 45.

Here's a list of 58 Democrats who are in danger. I've left a few off this list that you may think are in some danger and I've added a couple that may seem strange. These are simply my best guesses:

-AR 5 Mitchell (In very deep trouble)
-AR 8 Giffords
-AR 4 Ross (Arkansas may see the GOP wipe out the Dems this year)
-CA 20 Costa
-CA 47 Sanchez
-CO 3 Salazar (He has a 40% chance to win)
-CO 7 Perlmutter (In deep trouble-Independents in CO breaking to the GOP)
-CT 2 Courtney
-CT 4 Himes
-CT 5 Murphy (Among Connecticut Dems his seat is the most likely to fall)
-FL 23 Klein
-GA 2 Bishop
-GA 8 Marshall
-GA 12 Barrow
-IL 8 Bean
-IL 12 Costello
-IN 2 Donnelly (Likely to lose)
-KY 3 Yarmuth
-KY 6 Chandler (In deep trouble in red Kentucky)
-ME 2 Michaud
-MD 1 Kratovil (Will probably lose in this red district)
-MA 5 Tsongas
-MI 1 Open (This seat should pass to the GOP)
-MI 15 Dingell (If he loses it will be the final sign of the Apocalypse)
-MN 8 Oberstar (Another real surprise)
-MO 3 Carnahan
-MO 4 Skelton (Chair of Armed Services and running for his life)
-NJ 3 Adler
-NM 1 Heinrich
-NY 2 Israel
-NY 13 McMahon (A 40% chance to retain his seat)
-NY 20 Murphy (Won by only a few hundred votes in 2009 special election)
-NY 24 Arcuri
-NY 25 Maffei
-NC 4 Price
-NC 11 Shuler
-NC 13 Miller
-OH 6 Wilson (In very deep trouble)
-OH 13 Sutton (Very weak but the GOP candidate has had problems too)
-OH 18 Space
-OR 5 Schrader (Likely to lose)
-PA 4 Altmire
-PA 10 Carney
-PA 12 Critz
-PA 17 Holden
-SC 5 Spratt (A Blue Dog defense hawk in the race for his life)
-SD AL Herseth-Sandlin (A 50/50 chance to lose)
-TN 4 Davis
-TN 5 Cooper
-TX 23 Rodriguez (A poor campaigner with a huge temper-I think he'll lose)
-TX 27 Ortiz
-TX 28 Cuellar
-UT 2 Matheson (In a deeply red district, he's in real trouble)
-VA 9 Boucher (A Blue Dog who is looking like a strong bet to win)
-WA 2 Larsen
-WA 9 Smith
-WV 1 Open (The President has a 29% approval rating in the state)
-WI 3 Kind

A little over 100 seats are at stake. Certainly the GOP won't pick them all up but it is possible that they could get between 60-70 by the end of Election Night.

Respectfully,

The Snitch