Tuesday, October 12, 2010

The path to 50 for the GOP in the Senate

Here's the current state of the races. I've ranked them from the most likely GOP pickup to the least likely.

42 North Dakota-This race isn't close; it is possible that it will be a 40 point win. The At-Large Congressman, Democrat Earl Pomeroy, should lose as well but by a much closer margin.

43 Arkansas-Blanche Lincoln is in danger of losing by a huge margin (more than 20%) and the 3 Democratic House seats are all in danger of flipping as well. The Republicans are going to win a ton of offices down the ballot in the Natural State.

44 Indiana-Dan Coats will win this race by more than 12%. In addition, the GOP is poised to win at least two if not three House seats.

45 Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey is cruising. He should win this race by at least 8 points. The GOP is poised to easily take the governorship as well.

46 Wisconsin-Ron Johnson did well in his 2nd debate with Russ Feingold and I wouldn't to surprised if he wins by 8 points. The GOP will pick up he governorship and two to three House seats.

47 Colorado-Ken Buck has stumbled a bit against a very weak incumbent but he should still win along with 2 or 3 House seats flipping to the GOP. However, the Democrats will capture the governorship.

48 West Virginia-Polls have the race close but I still think John Raese wins by a a few points. The President's approval rating is only 29% in West Virginia.

49 Washington-I think Dino Rossi is slightly ahead. He has high unfavorables but Patty Murray is in great danger.

50 Nevada-In perhaps the most watched race in years, Sharron Angle is a bit ahead even with high negatives. Nobody knows how this one will turn out.

51 Illinois-Mark Kirk should be farther ahead than he is but he doesn't fire up the base and has stumbled from time to time. His Democratic opponent is one of the worst, most scandal-prone candidate in a long time and he still has a legitimate shot at winning.

52 California-Barbara Boxer is ahead but just got caught lying about her relationship to the disgraced lender, Countrywide. If Fiorina can capitalize on this she'll have a real chance but she'll need every break because of the large Democratic registration edge.

53 Connecticut-The GOP has a bit of a chance but I think it is fading fast.

New York and Oregon look like wins for the Democrats.

There's been a lot of talk about old Democratic bulls John Dingell, Barney Frank and Jim Oberstar being in trouble in their districts. I can't see Dingell losing but it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Frank and Oberstar can lose. Both haven't had a serious race in years and both face strong cahllengers who are working hard on the ground with their volunteers. The problem with being in a relatively safe district is that you don't develop a good campaign team when you don't really need one. It is like winning a boxing match in the first round-you don't know what to do when a challenger finally takes you deep into the tenth-you may get punched out.


The Snitch

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