Thursday, October 7, 2010

Latest on Senate and House races

It seems clearer to me each day that John Raese is probably going to win his race in West Virginia. Again, if he wins the seat he'll be able to go to Washington for the rump session and claim the seat in mid-November as soon as the Secretary of State in West Virginia certifies him the winner. Also, Rasmussen Reports released their latest poll today in Nevada which has Sharron Angle up 50-46 on Harry Reid. It seems hard to believe that Reid, who will probably spend more than 30 million (between his own war chest and other interests who spend on his behalf) may well come up short but I think he probably will. The percentage of Nevadans who will not vote for him under any circumstance (48%) is just outrageously high. The unemployment rate is approaching 15% and Independents are moving heavily in the GOP column. As long as Angle does relatively well in the debate I do expect her to prevail. Below I've outlined the Senate races from North Dakota (best chance of GOP pickup) to Connecticut (least chance). As you'll be able to see the path to 51 will be hard for the GOP; they'll have to win Nevada, Illinois and Washington which are three of the closest races in the land.

42)North Dakota
48)West Virginia
53)New York

Numerous polls are coming out each day. After information favorable to Matt Doheny, the GOP challenger to Democratic incumbent Bill Owens in CD 23 I believe that seat will flip to the Republicans. As of now I would say the Republicans will pick up New York CDs 1, 19, 20, 23, 24 and 29. The GOP will have good shots at NY CDs 2, 13 and 25.

In Connecticut the GOP is challenging CDs 2, 3 and 5. I don't expect the Republicans to take all three but it is very reasonable that they'll pick off at least one-most likely CD 5.

In North Carolina the GOP is really working hard to flip CDs 2, 7, 8 and 11. I don't think they'll take them all but they'll probably get at least two out of this group.

Right now I don't think it is out of the realm of possiblity for the GOP to win around 60 seats. They'll lose a seat in Delaware and Louisiana and possibly one in Illinois and Hawaii.

The Snitch

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